Between July and September, the value of Bitcoin (BTC +0.01%) surged from $60,000 to $87,000, marking a remarkable increase of 45%. However, as October arrives, Bitcoin has experienced a 2% decline with only a week left in the month.
The escalated oil prices seem to be a significant factor influencing this downturn. With oil prices remaining at around $100, Bitcoin’s growth has stagnated.
However, this shouldn’t be the case. Historically, Bitcoin has not been closely linked to major asset classes. So, why is its value currently affected by developments in the Middle East?
Bitcoin’s Oil Dependency Explained
To delve into this issue, it’s important to understand the typical oil price feedback loop that investors are discussing. In this model, increasing oil prices trigger inflation anxiety, which in turn compels central banks (like the U.S. Federal Reserve) to hike interest rates. Such rate increases negatively impact high-risk investments, leading to a sell-off in Bitcoin.
Image source: Getty Images.
That explanation seems straightforward, but does it actually hold water? Previous research has indicated little to no consistent correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices. In fact, long-term correlation coefficients between Bitcoin and oil benchmarks like WTI or Brent generally hover around zero. This indicates no meaningful correlation exists—positive or negative.
Admittedly, there have been brief instances where Bitcoin and oil moved together, as we’re witnessing now. Yet, over extended periods, such correlations fade. This gives me hope that Bitcoin will rebound regardless of how high oil prices climb, supported by historical trends.
Current Influencers on Bitcoin’s Value
Interestingly, the conversation surrounding Bitcoin shifts almost daily, with various reasons attributed to its price fluctuations. Much of this commentary, however, consists of background noise rather than substantial signals.
BTC Bitcoin
$80,532.00+$10.21 (+0.01%)
CRYPTO · As of 7:57 AM ET 10/25/26
For instance, when a tech company announces better-than-expected earnings, Bitcoin’s price may rise in tandem. Analysts might then declare that Bitcoin is acting like a high-beta tech equity. This scenario recently played out when SpaceX (SPCX +1.89%) reported impressive earnings, causing Bitcoin’s value to rise as analysts suggested that investors pay closer attention to tech earnings and their risk appetite.
Ultimately, Bitcoin should be viewed as a long-term investment. While it can experience extreme short-term volatility, focusing on daily price fluctuations—whether up or down—can be counterproductive. It’s best to keep an eye on the broader trends and let Bitcoin follow its course. This is why I’m investing in Bitcoin now, even as the rising cost of gasoline captivates public attention.