Bitcoin’s End-of-September Surge: Bulls and Bears Clash
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a comeback as September draws to a close, marking the end of both the month and the third quarter. A recent surge in BTC price action has caught many by surprise.
The price of Bitcoin exhibited unexpected strength, climbing above $112,000 before the weekly close. This movement has intensified the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish market participants.
Speculative trading activity has resurfaced, but analysts are cautioning about a potential downward correction aimed at liquidating leveraged long positions that were opened recently. This could mean short-term volatility for Bitcoin holders.
This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the release of employment figures from the United States. The data is coming at a time of continued scrutiny on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s monetary policy decisions.
Gold prices have reached new record highs at the start of the week, fueling speculation that Bitcoin might soon follow suit. Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s inherent qualities will push it higher, mirroring gold’s performance.
On-chain data indicates that some investors are selling their Bitcoin holdings in a panic reaction to recent price dips, while more experienced investors are choosing to hold steady, suggesting confidence in the long-term potential of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bulls Aim to Secure $112,000 Support
Bitcoin defied expectations by closing above a critical price point during the weekly trading session. This was by no means certain after the value of Bitcoin threatened a new monthly low under $109,000.
After briefly dipping below that threshold, the BTC/USD pair demonstrated resilience and rebounded, successfully reclaiming the $112,000 level as a new support zone.
Data analyzed from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position as Asian trading begins the new week.
Commenting on the latest price movements, many market observers remain cautious. They believe that further confirmation is necessary before declaring a full-fledged return to a bullish market trend.
Crypto investor Ted Pillows, shared his perspective on X, pointing out similarities to Ether’s (ETH) recent recovery. He stated, “$BTC also had a pump just like $ETH, mostly due to short positions getting closed.”
He added that a firm daily close above $113,500 is required for a sustained Bitcoin rally. “For a strong Bitcoin rally, a daily close above $113,500 is needed. Otherwise, BTC will most likely revisit its lows again.”
Trader Roman echoed a similar view, anticipating price fluctuations within the existing trading range’s limits, stating the price will gyrate between its upper and lower boundaries.
“Currently just retesting and resistance so unless we blow through on high volume, I expect some ping pong between here and 108k,” he summarized, demanding that bulls retake $118,000.
With the monthly and quarterly financial periods coming to an end, the following 48 hours are expected to see a good deal of volatility.
Data from CoinGlass reveals that if Bitcoin/USD holds at $112,000, it would secure a 3% gain for September. It would also make for a 4.4% increase for the third quarter.
These gains would represent moderate performance for Bitcoin, as historical data indicates that both September and Q3 returns are typically highly variable.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on X that “$BTC Has seen very little volatility and is closing the quarter relatively flat. This is not out of the ordinary for Q3 as you can see.”
He further elaborated that Q3 has historically been the weakest quarter, with an average increase of only around 6%. He concludes that the market is behaving as expected.
Conversely, Daan Crypto Trades foresees an exciting Q4, based on previous trends.
He commented that “BTC has been pretty reliable though so it makes more sense to watch in my opinion. Especially with it lagging behind the likes of $GOLD & Stocks the past few weeks.”
Potential Long Liquidation Triggered by CME Gap
Bitcoin’s recovery above $112,000 has resulted in a significant restructuring of liquidity within exchange order books.
CoinGlass data illustrates how this upward movement cleared out a number of short positions, and how large investors subsequently bolstered ask liquidity around the $113,000 level.
In the 24 hours leading up to this analysis, total liquidations across the crypto market amounted to $350 million, with short positions accounting for $260 million of that total.
Market analysts are now focusing on determining the likely direction of Bitcoin’s price, emphasizing that liquidity acts as an attractor, influencing price movements in both directions.
CrypNuevo stated that “I like when the market sentiment is bearish after a correction during a HTF uptrend.”
CrypNuevo expressed his insights, “I think it’s the case – a drop below $100k seems to be the market consensus right now. So instead, I’m inclining more towards a recovery from here or the liquidity grab at $106.9k and then up.”
Current data suggests a potential drop below $107,000 could trigger the liquidation of approximately $5 billion in long positions.
This factor, combined with the approaching monthly close, continues to create a cautious sentiment amongst some participants.
Trader Killa highlighted the appearance of a new weekend “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, emphasizing its potential as a price attractor.
He noted, “If we re-evaluate price action, we pumped on CME open. Usually, when we do that, these particular gaps can take a few days or a week to fill.”
Killa believes that the monthly and quarterly closes are resulting in the building of long liquidity prior to a sweep of weekend lows: “Since we have both monthly and quarterly closes, I believe they’re building long liquidity before taking out the weekend lows.”
US Jobs Data Impacted by Fed Pressure on Powell
This week, crypto and risk-asset traders will be paying close attention to the US employment data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. The familiar focus on these economic indicators is set to be repeated.
Multiple high-ranking officials are expected to provide commentary on the US economic outlook,amid diverging views regarding the possibility of future interest rate cuts.
Traders are hoping for these cuts, which would suggest an easing of monetary policy, which often results in greater liquidity flowing into risk assets.
Reports indicate that members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are not unanimous on the rate cuts.
In a speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, already under pressure from President Trump, attempted to balance hawkish and dovish communication. He wanted to appear in the middle ground in an uncertain economy.
He said after the FOMC agreed a 0.25% cut at its September meeting: “In recent months, it has become clear that the balance of risks has shifted, prompting us to move our policy stance closer to neutral at our meeting last week.”
Trump continues to ask for more drastic action. In a now-deleted post, Trump posted a cartoon of him firing Powell. He also called for his resignation.
“If it weren’t for Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, we would be at 2% right now, and in the process of balancing our budget,” part of a further post stated.
He concludes that incompetence has been fought through, and there will soon be a better country than before: “The good news is that we’re powering through his Incompetence, and we’ll soon be doing, as a Country, better than we have ever done before!”
Employment information across public and private sectors as well as jobless claims are forming a primary catalyst for the increased volatility.
Gold Reaches New Highs
The week may have begun with some minor relief for Bitcoin holders, but the performance of gold continues to dominate the news.
XAU/USD reached its all-time high on Monday, passing $3,800 per ounce due to reduced USD strength.
This continues a trend that has been seen this quarter, in which gold outperforms Bitcoin.
Reflexivity Research drew attention to the weakening Bitcoin/Gold Ratio, claiming it “signaling a preference for gold over Bitcoin as a hedge.”
Proponents still claim that Bitcoin will follow gold’s trajectory with only a statutory delay, and thus maintaining history.
Andre Dragosch linked the current situation to macroeconomic factors. He stated that the current scenario is different from how it normally operates, thus linking the two.
He told X followers, “Why has bitcoin been lagging behind gold in 2025? Because gold has been more sensitive to monetary policy & US Dollar while bitcoin has been more sensitive to global growth expectations.”
He concludes that “So, gold’s price action reflects strong monetary easing already while bitcoin’s price action still reflects weak growth expectations.”
Dragosch believes that monetary changes will result in changed growth expectations, and in turn a gold-like “significant rally” for Bitcoin will be seen.
Bitcoin Investors Panic
The reaction from Bitcoiners when seeing the recent dip reveals textbook market behavior.
The differing performance of LTH and STH holders is notable, with the latter performing loss-making coin sales, while “old hands” weathered the storm.
CryptoQuant found in a “Quicktake” blog post that the volatility of the market has always caused different actions, as this market is like any other.
Contributor Woo Min-Kyu summarized that the late stages of corrections are when low-ratio zones are seen: “We saw the same setup in late 2024—short-term capitulation while LTH conviction stayed strong—right before a major rebound.”
The SOPR ratio measures to what extent the coins that move are profitable or loss-making. The LTH and STH SOPR confirm that dip resulted in a sale for newer investors.
CryptoQuant concluded that “Short-term pain, long-term gain” is what is seen.
Reports show that those hodling for up to six months are always sensitive to volatility, especially when the market crosses their cost basis.
The average cost basis, per data, is around $109,800.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.