Bitcoin experienced downward pressure at the start of the week, according to Ostium Research’s most recent market analysis. The note described a significant market correction, with prices dipping to approximately $111,761 after failing to break through resistance near $117,000.
Analysts at Ostium Research view this pullback as part of an anticipated period of market instability, which they had previously identified as potentially extending into early October. However, they emphasize that the overall long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin remains in place, provided specific key levels on the weekly chart hold firm. The report, released on September 22, 2025, outlines both the technical analysis and the potential events that could influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming days.
Potential for Further Bitcoin Decline to $99,000
The weekly chart analysis from Ostium Research highlights the previous week’s price consolidation near the August opening price and a temporary move towards resistance at $117,500. However, the week concluded with the price closing slightly below the opening level. The start of the current week saw a decline below a previously recovered support level, pushing the price towards $111,000. The analysts pointed out that over $1.6 billion in long positions were liquidated during this period.
Two key levels are identified as critical for determining future price direction. A weekly close below $107,000 could lead to further declines towards $99,000. Conversely, a revisit of the weekly high at $115,300 is anticipated later in the week, representing a potential upside target.
Related Insights
Analyzing the daily timeframe, the August opening price of $115,700 is crucial for Bitcoin to reclaim to regain upward momentum. Ostium Research states that surpassing this level and establishing it as a new support zone is essential for resuming a bullish trend.
The immediate focus lies on the previous all-time high of $112,000. If Bitcoin can successfully re-establish this level as a support, the likelihood of forming a higher low increases, potentially triggering short covering and a move back towards $115,700. However, their primary expectation is continued price fluctuation between $112,000 and $115,000 before another potential downward push below the current low. This movement will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin breaks below the June low of $107,000 or establishes a bottom in the near term.
Ostium provides clear potential triggers for both long and short positions. A long position could be initiated if the price briefly dips below the current low early in the week, followed by a recovery of $112,000 as support, targeting a move back towards the weekly high. Conversely, a short position opportunity is identified as a rapid reversal back above the weekly high, followed by a rejection and a subsequent drop back below $115,300, with targets of $112,000 and lower. This scenario suggests a potential “squeeze-then-fade” pattern that could penalize both those who enter long positions too late and those who short too late.
Further Analysis
The report also considers market positioning and derivatives data to provide a comprehensive short-term outlook. It includes data on 3-month annualized basis, the ratio of Bitcoin to altcoin open interest, and short-term liquidation heatmaps. These factors highlight the potential for rapid shifts in liquidity during periods of low trading volume.
Based on these observations, Ostium anticipates a high probability of another downward move or liquidation event this week, which could potentially mark a short-term low. This could then be followed by a retest of the $115,300 level, which will serve as a crucial test to determine whether Bitcoin will experience another decline or a bear trap reversal before the end of the quarter.
Ostium’s overall outlook remains flexible, emphasizing probabilities rather than fixed predictions. If the $107,000 level fails to hold on a weekly closing basis, the period of weakness could extend towards $99,000. However, if this level holds, particularly if the market can successfully establish $115,700 as a support level, the possibility of a higher low remains viable. The analysts suggest that, similar to Ethereum, the reaction around the $111,700-$112,000 range this week will be critical for assessing Bitcoin’s overall structure.
Regardless of whether the recent price drop leads to a broader sell-off or a temporary dip before new highs, Ostium’s key takeaway is that a significant upward movement is expected from early October, unless the aforementioned weekly thresholds are breached.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $113,002.
AI-generated image via DALL.E, data from TradingView.com