Important Points:
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Market observers estimate a strong likelihood (around 70%) of Bitcoin reaching record price levels in the coming fortnight.
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Positive flows into spot ETFs and optimistic premiums on futures contracts support a potentially bullish surge.
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Available liquidity around the $113,000-$114,000 mark might cause a brief price dip before a larger breakout occurs.
The stage looks set for a potential surge in Bitcoin (BTC) value. Analysts suggest a substantial 70% probability that the leading cryptocurrency will challenge its previous all-time peaks within the next two weeks. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. indicates that current market dynamics show a balanced environment ripe for upward movement.
Adler Jr. points out that Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores, measured over both 155-day and 365-day periods, are hovering close to zero. This suggests that the market isn’t excessively bought or sold. With Bitcoin’s price marginally above the STH realized price, a brief consolidation period of one to two weeks may precede a breakout. Adler Jr. hinted at potentially favorable seasonal conditions, stating “Uptober incoming.”
Insights from derivatives trading strengthen the positive outlook. Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a higher price than the spot price. The seven-day basis running above the 30-day is a structure generally associated with bullish market sentiment. However, Adler Jr. noted that before a recent FOMC event, there were signs of slight market overheating. The cost basis increased on relatively low trading volume, indicating some late positioning.
The overall sentiment leans towards a stronger Bitcoin performance. “There’s a 70% chance that the next two weeks will feature a steady upward trend or sideways movement,” Adler Jr. clarified.
Institutional demand remains robust, as evidenced by US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting a net inflow of $2.8 billion since September 9, pushing market activity into a definitively positive zone. As inflows boost Bitcoin prices and technical indicators align favorably, traders are bracing themselves for a potentially decisive phase in Bitcoin’s next bull run.
Related: Trader Suggests Bitcoin Could Quickly Test All-Time Highs if Bulls Recapture $118K
Will Bitcoin Pause for a Dip, or Head Straight to $124,000?
Bitcoin has seen an 8.5% rise this month, increasing from $107,000 to $117,800 leading up to the Federal Reserve’s decision regarding interest rates. This consistent climb has left behind pockets of potential liquidity, suggesting a possibility of a short-term price decrease before further increases. September’s usual seasonal trend, which tends to be bearish, adds weight to this possibility.
However, Bitcoin’s overall pattern in 2025 has largely defied anticipated corrections. For most of the year, Bitcoin has bypassed potential liquidity levels, instead moving between external liquidity zones, exemplified by swing highs and lows on higher time frame charts across several weeks. A similar event occurred in July when Bitcoin ignored liquidity near $105,000 and swiftly reached new highs after confirming a break of structure (BOS) on a daily chart.
A comparable setup seems to be materializing now. If Bitcoin records a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS and significantly reduce the chances of a drop below $114,000. This scenario would also align with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s forecast of new all-time highs within the next two weeks.
While a brief window may exist for retesting order blocks near $113,000–$114,000, improving macroeconomic factors and increased ETF inflows imply that buyers might intervene earlier, limiting downside opportunities. The balance between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum will likely dictate whether Bitcoin pauses for a dip or proceeds directly towards $124,000.
Related: Analyst Argues That Bitcoin’s Lack of Yield Isn’t Necessarily a Disadvantage.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and we encourage readers to conduct thorough research before making any decisions.