According to James Check, founder of Checkonchain, Bitcoin (BTC) becoming less volatile is a significant positive signal for its future. The cryptocurrency’s price fluctuations have tapered off to levels reminiscent of summer 2023.
However, Wall Street continues to see volatility as a key challenge. JPMorgan has begun releasing a 10-year Bitcoin return forecast but has not made any portfolio recommendations, leaving institutional investors hesitant to engage.
The Quiet Period for Bitcoin Signals a Significant Shift
On October 27, Check, who previously worked with Glassnode, discussed this topic on the Honest Money Show, noting that Bitcoin has matured past its speculative phase.
“…it’s going to become routine, everyone. That’s the most optimistic outcome for Bitcoin.”
Data from Glassnode supports this claim. The 1-month realized volatility of Bitcoin, a measure of its price movements over the past 30 days, has fallen to 25.2%.
The analytics firm indicates that Bitcoin has exhibited calm trading conditions on only about 5% of all days since 2015.
The accompanying chart illustrates a tightening volatility range. The yearly volatility band has decreased from around 55–78% in mid-2022 to approximately 30–52% now.
A Shallower Bear Market Points in the Same Direction
The most recent decrease aligns with this trend. Bitcoin experienced a drop of about 54% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025, settling at $58,379 by June 30.
Check attributes the higher support level to a decrease in existential threats, noting that the market bottomed around $60,000 instead of a lower level like $40,000 because investors are less inclined to foresee Bitcoin’s failure.
Edward Wu, the head of BloFin Research, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that potential Bitcoin downturns might be less pronounced in the future.
Is Bitcoin’s Stability What Wall Street Has Been Looking For?
Check cited JPMorgan as evidence of Bitcoin’s evolution.
On October 19, JPMorgan Asset Management incorporated Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) report, forecasting an annual return rate of 10%. This projection outpaces US large caps at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
Despite this, JPMorgan has chosen not to include Bitcoin in its model portfolios due to unstable correlations and a historical volatility rate of 55%, which is about three times that of gold and stocks.
The bank indicated that Bitcoin’s role could be enhanced if volatility decreases and correlation stabilizes. According to Glassnode’s recent analysis, Bitcoin’s volatility is currently less than half of the long-term expectations.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise and a member of the BeInCrypto Expert Council, remarked that JPMorgan’s volatility projections are overly pessimistic.
According to Check, even a modest average allocation of 2% in institutional model portfolios could channel substantial capital into Bitcoin.