Predicting the lowest point of any asset can often lead to embarrassment later. Doing so with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) comes with the added pressure of a live audience. Nonetheless, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong made this bold claim in a recent Bloomberg video, stating, “I personally believe we’ve reached the bottom of Bitcoin’s price during this cycle.”
Armstrong has previously expressed this sentiment, holding firm even during a turbulent summer. He mentioned that approximately half of Coinbase’s revenue is generated from trading volume, indicating he is not a completely impartial commentator.
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I largely agree, though it’s challenging to convincingly assert that a market bottom has been reached while on camera, and I would certainly label the entire situation as a “rocky road.”
Market Overview
Bitcoin’s journey is reflected in the weekly closings reported by CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency reached a peak of approximately $124,800 on October 6, 2025, only to drop to around $60,100 by June 29, 2026. This represents a notable decline of 51.8%, which meets the criteria for a technical bear market in traditional stocks, requiring a 20% drop from recent highs.
As of October 2, Bitcoin rebounded to approximately $85,200, reflecting a 41.6% increase from its lowest point in June.
However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s last three major downturns were far steeper: 79.9%, 81.9%, and 76.6%. In that context, a 51.8% reduction seems almost mild.
The Current Situation Compared to the Past
The profile of Bitcoin buyers has evolved. Data from Bitbo indicates that as of October 2, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded products hold approximately 1.29 million BTC, valued at close to $109.3 billion.
This amounts to around 6.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million coins. Notably, none of these funds were present during past lows and neither was the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Skepticism Towards Armstrong’s Bottom Prediction
The timing aspect is where caution is warranted. Historically, previous lows occurred between 924 and 999 days post-halving. Bitcoin is currently 895 days post the April 2024 halving, suggesting the next downturn could happen around Halloween and extend into mid-January 2027—if past patterns hold firm. However, three cycles do not provide a wide enough data set for sweeping conclusions.
For the first time, Bitcoin reached a peak before a halving, hitting nearly $72,100 in March 2024, as market participants reacted to new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Evaluating trends based on various four-year charts can present a seemingly obvious cyclical pattern, but market conditions are always shifting.