CHONGQING, CHINA – JULY 17: In this photo illustration, a person holds a physical representation of a Bitcoin (BTC) coin in front of a screen displaying a candlestick chart of Bitcoin’s latest price movements on July 17, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The historic price patterns, or “cycles,” of Bitcoin might be changing, influenced by evolving investor demographics and favorable regulatory climates, potentially disrupting established market behaviors.
Any deviation from this traditional pattern could significantly reshape how investors assess the value of this cryptocurrency and the optimal times for purchasing Bitcoin.
“While official confirmation requires positive performance throughout 2026, I anticipate this occurring, leading me to believe the conventional four-year cycle has concluded,” Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shared with financial news outlets.
Decoding the Bitcoin Cycle
The “Bitcoin cycle” is often used to describe the typical four-year ebb and flow in Bitcoin’s price. This pattern is intrinsically linked to a crucial event known as “the halving,” a coded adjustment to the rewards distributed to Bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin halvings transpire about every four years. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, preceded by another in May 2020.
During a halving, the number of Bitcoins awarded to the entities responsible for maintaining the Bitcoin network—known as “miners”—is reduced by 50%. This measure inherently limits the total supply of Bitcoins, ensuring that only 21 million will ever be produced.
Historically, Bitcoin’s value increases in the months following a halving event, eventually achieving new record highs. This surge is often followed by a significant price correction, typically a decline of 70% to 80% from its peak, marking the start of a “crypto winter,” a prolonged period of depressed cryptocurrency values. The value of other digital currencies often declines significantly during this period as well. Bitcoin then trades within a certain range until the next halving approaches, usually causing its price to climb again, restarting the whole cycle.
Bitcoin’s price typically has moved in 4-year cycles.
Disruptions to the Bitcoin Cycle: What’s Changed?
Unprecedented market activity occurred surrounding the last halving, as Bitcoin reached a new all-time peak, exceeding $73,000 in March 2024. This occurred approximately one month prior to the halving, contrary to the typical pattern of price surges occurring after this significant event.
“Historically, new all-time highs have emerged 12-18 months following a halving,” explained Saksham Diwan, research analyst at CoinDesk Data.
A key catalyst in this disruption was the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which began trading in January 2024. ETFs provide investors with a means of tracking Bitcoin’s price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency itself.
Substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, fueled by the potential to attract more traditional institutional investors previously hesitant to engage with cryptocurrency, have contributed to Bitcoin’s price surge.
“The demand created by the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs essentially fast-tracked the typical post-halving price discovery. This served as the first real sign that the flows of capital from institutional investors could modify the traditional cyclical dynamics of Bitcoin,” Diwan commented.
Factors Contributing to the Shifting Bitcoin Cycle
The launch of Bitcoin ETFs represented a significant factor in the disruption of the four-year pattern. These ETFs attracted investors with significant financial resources who are looking to hold the cryptocurrency for extended periods.
However, several other market elements have also undergone change.
Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management points out that past “blowups in crypto” regularly preceded crypto winters. He cites the initial coin offering (ICO) collapse in 2018, and the failure of the crypto exchange FTX in 2022, as prime examples.
At the same time, the broader economic climate and regulatory environment are becoming increasingly supportive of cryptocurrency.
“Interest rates are now more likely to fall than rise over the next year. Furthermore, the fact that regulators and legislators are now willing to engage with crypto instead of steadfastly ignoring it will significantly reduce the risk of future devastating events,” Hougan stated.
The previous head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, had imposed harsh measures on the sector and initiated multiple legal actions against crypto firms. Participants in the crypto industry suggested they were being targeted unfairly. However, under the current administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the SEC has abandoned several of its lawsuits against cryptocurrency businesses. Washington is now examining the possibility of creating new crypto regulations and has even established a national bitcoin strategic reserve.
In parallel, publicly traded companies are increasingly acquiring cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, as a key part of their investment strategy.
“As markets mature, with a rising number of long-term investors and diminished volatility, the traditional four-year pattern is being replaced by behavior driven by factors like liquidity conditions and broader macroeconomic trends,” Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, informed news outlets.
Identifying the Current Stage in the Bitcoin Cycle
Crucially, past trends reveal that the most significant Bitcoin price gains typically occurred between days 500 and 720 post-halving, according to Diwan of CoinDesk Data. Bitcoin’s highest values were reached in this specific window during the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Diwan noted.
“If this pattern were to repeat itself, we would expect to see significant price movements from the third quarter of 2025 to early in the first quarter of 2026,” Diwan said. He added that the “price performance during this present cycle has been relatively limited compared to the post-halving periods in prior years.”
Bitwise Asset Management’s Hougan contends that the four-year pattern has ended, although a good performance in 2026 will be required to officially confirm this – a development he anticipates.
“I don’t believe we’ve eliminated volatility completely, but a) the factors that have historically caused the four-year cycle are less dominant now, and b) powerful forces are emerging on a distinct timescale. I believe these factors will override our usual four-year pattern,” Hougan commented in an email.
Bitcoin’s recent record-high value was achieved on July 14, when it exceeded $123,000.
Are Major Crashes a Thing of the Past?
A notable aspect of former cycles was that Bitcoin’s value would significantly plummet, approximately 70% to 80% from its record-high value after the halving event.
Crypto industry insiders have informed news outlets that this drastic decline will no longer take place, referencing the factors they cited previously to indicate a change in the four-year cycle.
“We think the era of harsh 70-80% pullbacks is now over,” asserted Chow from Solv Protocol.
He said the largest correction seen this cycle was around 26% on a closing basis, compared to around 84% after 2017 and 77% following 2021 all-time highs.
Chow added that consistent inflows from long-term investors and institutions are bolstering the downside. He suggested that while 30-50% corrections could still happen “due to macroeconomic shocks or regulatory upsets, these corrections will probably be shorter and less volatile compared to previous cycles.”
Hougan agreed that 30% to 50% declines are possible, but added: “I’d bet that 70% pullbacks are a thing of the past.”