Bitcoin stands as the last leading cryptocurrency maintaining its connection to the 50-day moving average. However, short-term traders are offloading their holdings onto exchanges at unprecedented levels not observed in over a year. Historical trends suggest that the subsequent outcomes could vary from a minor dip to something more significant.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is currently trading near its 50-day moving average, a critical metric used by traders to analyze mid-term trends. As of October 18, 2026, BTC concluded the day at 0.8% above this vital threshold, sitting at $81,396. Remarkably, it remains the sole prominent cryptocurrency above its 50-day average.
Bitcoin’s price is at $81,511, just under the latest 50-day average of $81,538. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has declined by 0.7% and has experienced a 2% decrease within the last week, currently trading at 35.4% below its peak value.
From October 12 to 18, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated between $79,676 and $84,262, and as of October 19, it was down 2.1% for this month. Should the 50-day average fail to hold, what direction might Bitcoin take next?
Reasons Behind Bitcoin’s Return to Its 50-Day Average
The recent price drop for Bitcoin can be attributed primarily to short-term holders, or recent buyers, cashing in on their profits. Data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals that these profit-takers have led to a substantial influx of cryptocurrency onto exchanges, marking the highest volume seen in a year—often indicative of an upcoming sale of these assets.
Interestingly, Glassnode points out that this influx rate has leveled off to its annual average, which may account for Bitcoin’s gradual decline. Nonetheless, this stability hasn’t attracted many new investors.
Interest from buyers has shown inconsistency. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that actually hold Bitcoin and function like stocks experienced a net inflow of $527 million on October 19, rebounding from $82 million in outflows recorded on October 16. The most significant selling happened on October 7, when $487 million was withdrawn from these funds, marking the largest single-day outflow noted from September 21 to October 19.
In comparison to Bitcoin, the overall crypto market seems to be weakening. The complete cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped by 3.2% over the last day, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 44, categorizing it as “Fear.”
Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Group, has adopted a short-term bearish view on Bitcoin since October 9 and reiterated this perspective in his weekly review. However, he still holds a positive medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that dips may present fruitful purchasing opportunities.
Previous Instances When Bitcoin Fell Below Its 50-Day Average
In 2026, Bitcoin has relinquished its 50-day average on four occasions.
| Date BTC Lost the 50-Day | Close That Day | Following Low | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 | $69,918 | $64,939 (March 29) | 7.1% |
| May 22 | $75,444 | $59,073 (June 5) | 21.7% |
| July 16 | $63,771 | $62,210 (August 1) | 2.4% |
| August 14 | $62,975 | August 16 low | 0.5% |
The most significant decline occurred after the May breach, where Bitcoin plummeted from $75,444 to $59,073, marking a 21.7% downturn. However, the drops following the July and August breaches were considerably milder, descending by 2.4% and 0.5% respectively, before Bitcoin rallied to a closing value of $77,054 on August 22.
Given the four cases of breaching the 50-day average this year, predicting future trends remains challenging due to the small data set.
Bitcoin’s Performance Compared to Ethereum, Solana, and XRP
In the last month, Bitcoin has seen a slight increase of 0.4%, while Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) has dropped by 9.5%. Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) fell by 6%, and XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) suffered an 8.1% loss. Over the past year, Bitcoin is still ahead, down 26.3%, compared to declines of 39.9% for Ethereum, 44.9% for Solana, and 48.1% for XRP.
Bitcoin currently claims a market dominance of 59.6%. During periods of cautious investor sentiment, capital typically shifts from altcoins to Bitcoin, benefiting from stronger trading markets and consistent demand from spot ETFs. This trend likely explains why Bitcoin has maintained its position above the 50-day average longer than other leading cryptocurrencies.
Trading volumes have also diminished, with overall crypto trading falling by 1.5% in the last 24 hours. The most vigorous trading session for Bitcoin recently took place on September 21, when the price surged from $81,160 to $86,595. When Bitcoin experiences declines accompanied by low trading volumes, it signals seller calmness, though buyers seem hesitant.
Hilbert Identifies Key Support Levels for Bitcoin at $79,000, $77,000, and $72,000
Hilbert has pinpointed several critical support levels for Bitcoin, starting with the immediate 50-day average at $81,538, followed by $79,000, which signifies the max pain level as the options expiry date approaches. The “max pain” level refers to the price at which the highest number of options contracts expire worthless, creating the most significant losses for option buyers. Prices often trend toward this level as expiry nears, with BTC reaching $79,676 on October 15.
Following that, Thompson highlights trend-line support at $77,000, and Hilbert includes a moving-average support band extending down to $72,000. Notably, this $72,000 mark remains significantly above the June 5 low of $59,073.
Options traders seem to be taking a cautious stance. Hilbert notes that put options—contracts likely to increase in value when prices drop—are trading at a 16-point premium compared to call options, which rise in value as prices increase. Additionally, implied volatility, which forecasts potential price movements, stands at 35, surpassing the realized volatility of 32.5, indicating that traders expect more price fluctuations than what the market has recently exhibited.
Potential Downside for Bitcoin if It Breaks the 50-Day Average
We anticipate that Bitcoin may soon close below its 50-day average; however, the support levels situated beneath appear more formidable than those encountered in May. Simply breaking below this average wouldn’t signal much, especially considering the mixed signals from Bitcoin’s behavior in 2026.
A daily closing price below $77,000 would be more alarming, as it would breach Hilbert’s trend line and bring the $72,000 support level into focus.
On the upside, Hilbert indicates that if Bitcoin manages to break and sustain a position above $88,000, it could lead toward prices in the mid-$90,000s. Bitcoin’s recent high was $87,397 on September 21, just shy of reaching that pivotal level. Thompson’s medium-term outlook hinges on this breakout, ideally accompanied by an inflow surge similar to what occurred on October 19. A daily close beyond $88,000 would contradict the current short-term bearish sentiment.
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