BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has attracted significant investment this year, pulling in $23.8 billion. Simultaneously, their BUIDL fund, which tokenizes U.S. Treasury bonds, has seen substantial growth, increasing roughly 800% in just 18 months.
IBIT’s impressive performance in 2025 places it among the top performers in the ETF market. Monitoring daily flow figures is essential for gauging the strength of investor interest, particularly during U.S. trading hours, where Bitcoin market activity has concentrated since the introduction of spot ETFs.
A key question is how the ongoing ETF investment interacts with Bitcoin’s reduced issuance following the halving event. The current Bitcoin supply stands at approximately 450 BTC per day, reflecting 3.125 BTC per block at roughly 144 blocks per day. This controlled issuance makes the supply relatively small compared to the influx of capital.
With $24 billion entering the market over approximately 275 days, the daily average is around $87 million.
At a Bitcoin price of $90,000, this translates to roughly 970 BTC of daily demand. If Bitcoin reaches $120,000, demand is about 725 BTC per day, and at $130,000, approximately 670 BTC per day.
Even at higher price points, IBIT’s 2025 average demand surpasses new issuance. This also excludes inflows into other spot ETFs, which also draw Bitcoin from the same limited circulating supply.
| Price per BTC | IBIT inflow/day | Implied BTC/day | New supply/day | Coverage ratio (BTC demand ÷ supply) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90,000 | $87,000,000 | ~970 | ~450 | ~2.2× |
| $120,000 | $87,000,000 | ~725 | ~450 | ~1.6× |
| $130,000 | $87,000,000 | ~670 | ~450 | ~1.5× |
While flow is a crucial factor, returns aren’t solely determined by it, and daily market activity can deviate from a simple supply-demand model.
Statistical analysis reveals a moderate correlation between daily ETF net flows and Bitcoin returns, with an R² value near 0.32. Market liquidity has shifted toward U.S. trading hours as market depth on U.S. exchanges has increased since the approval of spot ETFs.
This shift explains why spot prices and spreads often react most strongly around the close of Wall Street trading, when flow data becomes available and market makers adjust their positions. It also emphasizes the risk associated with reversal days.
IBIT has occasionally experienced significant outflows this year, and these sessions have coincided with wider spreads and thinner order books, even as the overall trend has been towards accumulation. This highlights the importance of variance, not just averages.
BUIDL contributes to the ecosystem by offering tokenized short-term U.S. Treasuries to verified (KYC’d) holders.
BUIDL reached $1 billion in assets in under a year after launch. The addition of share classes on other chains provided faster transfer options to a tokenized cash account framework that already existed on Ethereum, bringing total assets close to $3 billion.
This growth represents approximately an 800% increase over the initial 18 months.
BUIDL holders can exchange shares for USDC using a smart contract-based system that functions as a 24/7 off-ramp, separate from the standard creation and redemption cycle. This strengthens the connection between fiat currency and on-chain dollars, providing market participants with a faster settlement option for collateral management and liquidity buffers.
This connection is important during rebalancing periods, margin calls, and instances where unexpected ETF flows necessitate rapid hedging.
The Macroeconomic Landscape Supports Tokenized Cash Yields
Short-term interest rates have decreased from their peak but remain positive. The 3-month Treasury yield remains within a range that makes tokenized T-bill products attractive as a treasury management tool for firms operating continuously in the crypto space.
If the 10-year yield decreases while policy expectations stabilize, returns on tokenized bills remain competitive compared to on-exchange cash balances that don’t earn interest, potentially supporting steady subscriptions even without bursts of price-sensitive inflows.
The funds’ mechanisms still include operational limitations and best-effort execution during periods of stress, as described in public documentation from tokenization platforms. Therefore, intraday liquidity shouldn’t be considered unlimited.
Spot ETF demand has also seen surges beyond the average. Global spot ETF holdings increased by roughly 20,685 BTC in mid-September, representing the strongest weekly gain since early summer, raising U.S. spot ETF holdings to around 1.32 million BTC.
This increase corresponded with renewed interest in distribution platforms and model portfolios, as well as the increasing use of futures basis and options overlays to mitigate basis risk related to ETF creations and redemptions.
The increase in U.S. trading hour depth provides a microstructure channel through which these allocations interact with the order book, centralizing liquidity when U.S. advisors, RIAs, and funds rebalance.
From a broader perspective, tokenization forecasts help to estimate the potential of on-chain dollar infrastructure. According to Citi’s GPS series, tokenized assets could reach $4 to $5 trillion by 2030, with stablecoins potentially reaching a market value of up to $4 trillion by that time.
A separate analysis by BCG and ADDX suggests an even larger potential, reaching into the mid-teens trillions. These projections are not short-term predictions but offer a framework for considering the proportion of institutional cash and collateral that might transition to tokenized instruments interoperable with crypto exchange infrastructure.
If BUIDL and similar vehicles reach the low billions in assets over the next year, even a few billion dollars of additional on-chain cash, capable of moving between venues in minutes rather than days, will impact how market makers manage risk associated with ETF activity.
2025 Scenarios to Frame the Next Phase
Mid-year projections estimated total spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows for 2025 near $55 billion. That number has already been surpassed with approximately $59 billion in inflows by October. At an average transaction price of $120,000, cumulative demand equates to roughly 458,000 BTC annually, or around 1,250 BTC daily if distributed evenly, still exceeding new Bitcoin issuance.
Even a weaker year, finishing between $25 and $35 billion due to outflows, would keep the structural demand near or above issuance at various price points. Conversely, stronger demand pushing totals into the $70 to $85 billion range would significantly exceed issuance unless long-term holders begin distributing their holdings.
These scenarios don’t require assuming unrealistic parabolic price increases; they simply convert reported and projected dollar flows into Bitcoin equivalents and compare them to the predictable issuance rate.
IBIT and BUIDL: A Mechanical Loop, Not a Story
ETF allocations bring regulated capital into Bitcoin using standard brokerage channels, increasing the amount of Bitcoin held off-exchange and shifting inventory.
Tokenized cash accounts, with USDC off-ramps and multi-chain support, allow institutions to move dollars within the crypto settlement cycle while remaining within treasury-grade instruments.
As this system expands, spreads tighten, and market depth improves during U.S. trading hours, making rebalancing around daily flow data smoother. Kaiko’s research shows this concentration effect is visible in order book data, aligning with flow data from SoSoValue and Farside.
There are limitations. Flow cycles fluctuate, and Kaiko’s correlation analysis indicates that a large inflow doesn’t guarantee a proportional return on the same day.
Outflow events have occurred, causing coverage ratios in the table above to decrease quickly when the direction reverses. Operational constraints on tokenized funds can tighten during times of market stress, reducing immediate convertibility until capacity is restored.
These limitations don’t negate the fundamental changes; they define the operating parameters for treasury desks and trading teams adapting to a market where regulated ETFs and tokenized short-term instruments facilitate liquidity movement with fewer intermediaries.
The framework doesn’t demand unrealistic expectations.
It’s enough to acknowledge that a major regulated buyer has already acquired nearly $60 billion worth of Bitcoin this year.
Simultaneously, a tokenized cash account managed by the same asset manager has grown to several billion dollars in assets, featuring a programmatic USDC bridge.
The next update arrives with Monday’s weekly ETF flow report.