The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has adjusted its schedule for releasing the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key indicator of U.S. inflation. This announcement arrives during the current U.S. government shutdown. The cryptocurrency market is expected to closely analyze the inflation figures, as they could significantly impact the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) upcoming decisions.
BLS Sets October 24 for U.S. Inflation Data Publication
The Bureau of Labor Statistics made public that the September CPI will be revealed on October 24th. This differs from the initial planned date of October 15th. The BLS has specified that this particular report will be the only one published during the period of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
This delay joins other postponements of vital economic statistics, including U.S. jobs data, caused by the continuing U.S. government shutdown. The October 24th release means the inflation numbers will be available just five days prior to the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 29th.
The information about U.S. inflation could sway the discussion surrounding potential interest rate reductions at the FOMC meeting. Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed continued concern over the possibility of rising inflation. For example, Fed Governor Michael Barr recently emphasized the need for caution in adjusting monetary policy, citing concerns that tariffs enacted under the previous administration could lead to sustained inflationary pressures.
However, the FOMC meeting minutes suggest a prevailing sentiment among Fed officials towards implementing further interest rate cuts before the end of the year. These officials have indicated a shift in focus towards addressing the weakening employment situation, placing less emphasis on risks associated with inflation.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool currently indicates a high probability, specifically 96.7%, that the Federal Reserve will enact a 25 basis point (bps) rate reduction at the October FOMC meeting. Given the strong expectation of a rate cut, weaker-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data could amplify the potential for a more significant reduction.
Conversely, Fed Governor Chris Waller has advised against accelerating the pace or magnitude of rate reductions. He believes that the current approach to easing monetary policy is appropriate, and has stated that he intends to support a 25 bps rate cut at both the October and December FOMC gatherings.