Prediction markets on Polymarket are indicating relatively low probabilities for specific phrases to be uttered by President Donald Trump during today’s joint press briefing with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, despite the prediction market event reaching a substantial trading volume.
The markets, which are designed to settle based on whether Trump uses particular words or phrases during the conference, have collectively seen nearly $200,000 in trading activity across several markets.
According to Polymarket data, the contract regarding whether Trump mentions “Russia” or “Ukraine” at least 15 times has a 79% implied probability, with roughly $15,300 traded. The likelihood of Trump saying “Ceasefire” three or more times is estimated at 72%, with $11,334 in volume. Other terms with higher predicted probabilities include “Zelensky” at 88% ($37,780 volume), and “BRICS” or “NATO” used two or more times at 68% ($11,487 volume). Markets for the phrases “secondary tariff” or “sanction” suggest a 69% chance, whereas “Steve” or “Witkoff” is priced at 65%.
Conversely, certain phrases are showing much lower chances. For instance, the “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” markets have attracted over $51,700 in trading volume but are only given a 3% probability of being spoken. “Hell” used three or more times is at 28%, “President Xi” is at 27%, while terms like “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth” are grouped in the 40–50% probability range.
All markets will be settled based on the official video or audio recording of the August 15th event. Any use of a phrase, including plural or possessive versions, will count towards the outcome.
Another Polymarket contract is focused on predicting the length of the handshake between the two leaders, attracting over $180,000 in total volume. The most actively traded prediction is a handshake lasting 10 seconds or longer, at 24% probability with $56,092 volume. This is followed by 4–6 seconds at 27% and 2–4 seconds at 20%. The shortest handshake, under two seconds, is considered the least likely outcome, at just 4%.
This Alaska summit marks the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin since 2019 and the first time the U.S. has hosted a bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.
As the Washington Post reported, the discussions are taking place without the presence of Ukrainian representatives, a decision that has prompted disapproval from Kyiv and European allies. According to the Guardian, the Kremlin is expected to present economic proposals in conjunction with territorial demands related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Polymarket, known for allowing users to trade on the outcomes of crypto-related events, has emerged as a widely-followed indicator of sentiment concerning political and geopolitical happenings. The platform previously hosted a market regarding whether this summit would even occur, attracting nearly $3 million in total bets before the market resolved to “Yes” following confirmation of the meeting. Market prices constantly fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares reflecting “Yes” or “No” outcomes, thereby providing a real-time representation of collective probability assessments.
The timing of the event has attracted interest from traders tracking its potential effects on energy and broader financial markets. As MarketWatch observed, oil futures could be influenced by any perceived progress or failure during the talks, potentially resulting in price fluctuations of several dollars per barrel.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, known for their sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, may also be impacted by post-summit sentiment. However, the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” phrase market indicates that traders generally do not expect this asset class to be addressed in Trump’s public comments.
Trump is scheduled to hold the joint press conference following his private meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close after the event concludes, and recorded evidence confirms the results. Should a public appearance not occur by August 16th, all contracts will resolve to “No”.