Following a quiet start to the week, analysts predict that the subdued trading of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may not persist for long. Market watchers are keenly awaiting important upcoming economic data from the United States, which could influence future trading strategies and are being watched with increasing interest by seasoned market participants.
The financial world is now focused on key economic releases: revised Nonfarm Payroll figures scheduled for Tuesday, the Producer Price Index report on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index data slated for Thursday.
Favorable outcomes across these indicators could sway the U.S. Federal Reserve’s approach to managing inflation, potentially leading to further interest rate adjustments beyond those anticipated in September. A surge in inflation, however, could necessitate a reassessment of risk asset positions, including those in the cryptocurrency space.
Recent data suggests a weakening U.S. job market in July and August. According to a
tweet
by The Kobeissi Letter on Tuesday, revisions to Tuesday’s Nonfarm Payroll figures are expected to fall somewhere between -450,000 and -950,000.
“Currently, the rate path calculation’s biggest uncertainty is inflation,” said Greg Magadini, Derivatives Director at Amberdata, in a conversation with
Decrypt
.
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While U.S. President Donald Trump is working to keep energy prices low, he noted, “this might not be sufficient to curb inflation, and lacking a solid Federal Reserve strategy, anticipated inflation could lead to considerable turmoil.”
Additional market uncertainty is anticipated on September 17, coinciding with the expiration of futures linked to the VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision announcement.
Magadini commented, “This leads me to think that the risk for September has been priced out of VIX futures, whereas October could be troublesome.”
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Sean Dawson described this as “a potentially explosive situation for market volatility” to
Decrypt
, adding that the combined effect of expiring VIX futures clearing volatility hedges and the Fed’s decision will likely initiate a significant directional shift.
Data related to Ethereum’s perpetual contracts indicate a somewhat more optimistic perspective than that of Bitcoin, driven by a continuous uptrend in cumulative spot volume along with a $438 million overnight increase in open interest, bringing the total to $24.3 billion, based on data from
Coinalyze
.
Over the same timeframe, open interest in Bitcoin rose by approximately $450 million, reaching $30.41 billion, although trading activity exhibited no discernible preference between buyers and sellers.