The digital currency Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at a pivotal point, leading analysts to speculate if its extended upward trend might be reaching a conclusion. With price fluctuations narrowing and past market patterns suggesting a significant move is on the horizon, observers are paying close attention to the coming weeks for clues about the market’s current standing and potential trajectory.
Is the Bitcoin Uptrend Coming to an End?
A market commentator known as CRYPTOBIRD has cautioned that Bitcoin’s bullish period could conclude in the next month. Via the X platform, the expert pointed out that the ongoing cycle has been in motion for 1,038 days since hitting its low in November 2022, representing about 97.5% of a typical cycle. Historically, the concluding 2.5% of Bitcoin’s uptrends have produced the most dramatic increases, often taking both individual and large investors by surprise.
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Analyzing the overall trend from the bottom up, Bitcoin’s present market behavior echoes earlier cycles, witnessing considerable acceleration just prior to the cycle’s end. The line representing the current 2022-2025 path suggests Bitcoin is stabilizing after substantial gains, mirroring the patterns of 2016 and 2020 before their peaks.
From a technical perspective, the expert emphasizes that Bitcoin is trading within a remarkably tight 5% range, between $110,500 and $116,000, indicating substantial pressure. However, the digital asset recently faced another drop and is now hovering slightly above $109,600.
CRYPTOBIRD identifies key levels: the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $53,111, serving as long-term support, the 50-week SMA around $99,000 as the bull market’s floor, and a correlation of -0.19 with the S&P 500. The analyst detailed that short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support standing firm at $111,296. Still, the pressure has created an environment where any breakout could define the trend for the remainder of the year.
Moreover, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, signaling potential bearish periods. At present, the price is trending toward the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and if Bitcoin can maintain its position above this level, bulls could maintain control.
Post-Halving Data Suggests Possible Bitcoin Correction
Expanding on the analysis, CRYPTOBIRD underscored that Bitcoin is now 523 days since the most recent halving, placing it well within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days following each halving event. Each prior major cycle peak has occurred within this range, indicating Bitcoin is entering a statistically significant period for its last major movement.
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Adding to this picture is the market’s current narrowing price volatility. The Average True Range (ATR) has decreased to 2,250, its lowest point of 2025, while 50-day volatility is at 2,800. The expert suggests that compressed volatility rarely persists and usually precedes a dramatic breakout within a few weeks.
Institutional investors also appear to be adjusting their positions, with Bitcoin ETF inflows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators provide more context, as the Fear and Greed index registers at 44, signaling increasing anxiety instead of excitement. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 46, indicating that momentum has moderated but hasn’t broken down.
Despite September’s historical reputation as a weak month for Bitcoin, CRYPTOBIRD points out that it has grown by 4.4% month-to-date, going against its average 6.2% decline. This deviation, paired with October, traditionally a strong month, could set the stage for a bullish final quarter of the year.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com