New data suggests extended early access phases for video games may negatively impact their ultimate commercial success.
The early access model on platforms like Steam has become a well-trodden path for independent game developers. Titles such as ARK: Survival Evolved played a significant role in establishing Steam’s early access program as a viable option back in 2015, before its full launch two years following its early access debut. Contemporary examples include Hades 2, which entered early access in May 2024 and anticipates its official release later this month.
Larger entities in the industry have also embraced this strategy. Notably, EA’s Skate reboot recently launched in early access earlier in the week.
This business model and the games that use it have faced criticism. However, it also has the potential for substantial achievements and financial rewards, even if some games struggle to transition beyond their early access phase.
A recent analysis reveals a correlation between prolonged early access periods and decreased sales figures upon a game’s official launch.
Optimal Early Access Length: Around Six Months
The finding originates from the freely available section of Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report 2025 (reported by Automaton). The report indicates that extended periods in early access may lead to reduced sales when a game is officially released.
The Newzoo study examined games that initiated early access and subsequently launched fully between early 2021 and the close of 2024. The study looked at the average number of new players acquired within the initial three months following their full release.
Data suggests games achieving the strongest performance within their initial three-month launch timeframe experienced an early access phase lasting between four and nine months. Sales tended to decrease for games that remained in early access for longer durations. Newzoo’s analysis suggests six months appears to be the optimal timeframe for maximizing sales following release.
Newzoo’s analysis aligns with a 2023 study by Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo. That report analyzed over 1500 games released between 2015 and 2023 and also indicated that lengthier early access periods are typically associated with lower sales following a game’s official release.
However, Carless also noted that spending more time in early access frequently translated to a higher conversion rate of wishlists into actual sales, indicating potential benefits for extended early access durations.
Moreover, the approach developers and publishers adopt during early access is also a major factor. Important criteria include the frequency of updates, responsiveness to player feedback, transparency within the community, and, of course, standard market factors such as release timing and marketing efforts, all influencing sales performance.
However, it is noteworthy that there is a potential optimal time-frame for early access release.