Could Ethereum (ETH) potentially reach a value of $10,000 during this market upswing? The digital asset investment firm, XWIN Finance, suggests that shifts in available funds could be the key factor.
As the global measure of money supply (M2) reaches unprecedented levels and the supply of Ethereum held on exchanges declines, analysts at XWIN indicate that Ethereum may be entering a “revaluation phase.” This fundamental change could propel its price to the five-figure range if present trends persist.
Over the last three years, the U.S. M2 money supply has entered a new period of growth, hitting a record peak of approximately $22.2 trillion.
Bitcoin has been the first cryptocurrency to benefit from this surge in liquidity, increasing by over 130% since 2022. Its correlation with the M2 money supply is remarkably high, around 0.9.
In contrast, Ethereum has not yet fully reflected this trend, experiencing only a roughly 15% increase during the same timeframe. This discrepancy represents a “liquidity gap,” however blockchain analytics suggest that this difference may be diminishing.
Source: CryptoQuant
The amount of Ethereum held in exchange wallets has decreased to approximately 16.1 million ETH, a drop of over 25% since 2022, suggesting a significant reduction in potential selling pressure.
Net inflows into exchanges have consistently remained negative, indicating that Ethereum is increasingly being moved into personal wallets or staking contracts.
Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive, signaling renewed purchasing activity from institutional investors within the United States.
Source: CryptoQuant
These indicators are similar to the conditions observed in early 2020 and 2021, periods which preceded significant upward movements in Ethereum’s price.
Historically, Ethereum’s price increases have lagged behind Bitcoin’s during the initial stages of monetary easing cycles.
However, when Bitcoin’s market share drops below 60%, investments often shift into alternative cryptocurrencies, and the value ratio of ETH to BTC starts to rise.
This pattern seems to be re-emerging, suggesting that 2025 may represent a transition from a phase dominated by Bitcoin to one driven by Ethereum and other altcoins.
Considering all these factors, a $10,000 price target for Ethereum by the fourth quarter of this year appears plausible. If achieved, this increase would likely be a consequence of capital flowing through the cryptocurrency markets, rather than excessive market speculation.
Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of BitMEX, also anticipates that Ethereum reaching $10,000 by the close of 2025 is a realistic possibility.
In a blog post from July, Hayes presented his argument, linking the potential price surge to economic strategies being advanced by U.S. President Donald Trump and what he characterizes as a move toward a wartime economic model.
According to Hayes, Trump’s return to office has brought a renewed emphasis on a credit-driven economic plan focused on boosting domestic production, particularly in sectors like rare earth elements and defense manufacturing.