A recent analysis from CryptoQuant’s second weekly report for September reveals that Ethereum’s substantial price growth, escalating from approximately $1,400 in April to almost $5,000, has been accompanied by increased investments in funds, significant accumulation by large Ethereum holders (whales), a decrease in exchange deposits, and heightened activity levels in transactions, unique addresses, and smart contract interactions.
Ethereum is currently trading below its realized price range of $5,200, while institutional holdings and on-chain activity are at record highs.
The report suggests that the crucial factor moving forward is whether the price can successfully break through the upper boundary of the realized price range, which has previously acted as a resistance level.
CryptoQuant indicates that Ethereum held within funds, largely attributed to U.S. spot ETFs, has risen to 6.7 million ETH, almost doubling since April. Simultaneously, addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated around 6 million ETH, bringing their total holdings to 20.6 million ETH, marking a new peak.
The “smart money” element present within these substantial holdings suggests that a significant portion of the buying demand is already established. This reduces the potential for future momentum-driven price increases without a fresh influx of capital. Charts within the report highlight both the growth in fund holdings and the increasing balances held by the aforementioned whale cohort, reaching new highs.
Staking Activity Sees Concurrent Growth.
The total amount of ETH staked has reached approximately 36.2 million, an increase of roughly 2.5 million ETH since May. The growing number of validators contributes to a reduction in the circulating supply and supports a tighter supply situation. However, it also locks up capital that could potentially address new demand if prices decline or trading volumes decrease.
This blend of reduced available supply and strong commitment from validators can help explain why selling pressure in the spot market might ease, even when prices remain relatively stable.
On-chain activity has also expanded. Total daily transactions reached a peak of approximately 1.7 million on August 16th, and active addresses hit approximately 800,000 on August 5th, both representing new highs, according to network data. Smart contract calls surpassed 12 million per day for the first time, signifying the most extensive utilization of the Ethereum base layer to date.
Increased usage across decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoin transfers, and token-related activities boosts transaction fee revenue and reinforces the role of Ethereum as a crucial settlement layer supporting its cash flow and utility narratives. If activity were to slow down, volatility may increase as the market seeks to establish an accurate valuation based on lower transaction volumes.
Spot Market Selling Pressure Diminishes.
CryptoQuant’s data on exchange inflows reveals a decrease in deposits to centralized exchanges, falling from roughly 1.8 million ETH in mid-August to around 750,000 ETH per day after the price peak in early September.
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Reduced coin movement to exchanges generally corresponds to decreased actual selling, which contributes to price stability during consolidation phases. Low inflows may also occur alongside less liquid order books, potentially leading to larger price swings resulting from smaller trades if market-moving news emerges.
The critical technical level to watch is the upper boundary of the realized price range, around $5,200. CryptoQuant identifies this as the area that previously halted upward momentum in 2020-2021 and again in early 2024. Given that ETH was trading around $4,400 at the time of the report, the market is currently positioned just below a level that has historically acted as a barrier to sustained price increases.
A successful breach of this zone would transition trading into a range where, on average, holders are more deeply in profit, making supply dynamics more dependent on whether new inflows can outpace distribution from long-term holders.
The Flow Picture Offers a Simple Checklist for the Weeks Ahead.
Since fund holdings are already at record levels, the focus shifts to the rate of net new fund creations rather than absolute fund size. With whale entities holding over 20 million ETH, their net accumulation patterns carry significant weight compared to retail trading activity.
As staking totals 36 million ETH, any acceleration or deceleration in validator deposits will impact the available circulating supply. Exchange inflows are currently low relative to August, so it is crucial to observe whether this trend persists or reverses as prices retest previous highs. These four factors – fund holdings, whale accumulation, staking activity, and exchange inflows – are readily observable within the report’s charts and data.
For a broader valuation perspective, CryptoQuant attributes the price increase from April to September to a combined influence of institutional involvement and on-chain transaction volume. This framework links the demand from ETFs with the practical use of Ethereum in DeFi and token transactions.
This framework also acknowledges that periods may occur where activity outpaces price or vice versa. During these phases, the realized price ranges and exchange flow metrics are useful for distinguishing between periods of consolidation and distribution, especially when large holders already possess substantial positions.
Therefore, the short-term outlook hinges on whether ETH can maintain its position during a second attempt to surpass the realized price range, with activity among funds, whales, stakers, and general network usage serving as key indicators of whether the current uptrend continues or pauses.
According to the report, the realized price upper band near $5,200 remains the key level to monitor.