Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has issued a remarkable forecast for
Bitcoin, suggesting it could surge to $3.4 million within the next three years.
In a newsletter published on September 23rd
note, Hayes explained that his ambitious prediction hinges on the potential for a future
Donald Trump-led administration to implement an aggressive monetary policy, specifically through yield curve control.
Hayes stated:
“Looking ahead to 2028, the U.S. Treasury will need to issue new debt, both to repay existing obligations and to cover the ongoing government deficit.”
Hayes anticipates that fiscal challenges in the United States will intensify, projecting annual deficits of approximately $2 trillion extending through 2028.
This budgetary gap, coupled with the necessity of refinancing maturing debt, could push the total issuance of new Treasury securities above $15 trillion during the same timeframe.
Hayes further anticipates that the Federal Reserve will become the primary purchaser of this newly issued debt.
He drew parallels to the COVID-19 crisis, during which U.S. authorities absorbed roughly 40% of government borrowing to stabilize financial markets. Hayes foresees a similar scenario unfolding as foreign investors become less inclined to finance U.S. debt obligations.
Hayes elaborated:
“My expectation is that the Fed will acquire 50% or more of the newly issued debt. The appetite among foreign central banks to purchase Treasury debt is waning, particularly given the expectation that a future Trump administration would substantially increase debt issuance.”
He estimates that the combined credit creation by the Federal Reserve and the banking sector could expand significantly under such circumstances.
Hayes connects this potential surge in liquidity directly to
Bitcoin’s valuation, estimating a correlation of 0.19 between BTC price appreciation and each dollar of credit growth.
He argues that each trillion dollars printed will propel the leading cryptocurrency closer to the multi-million dollar price range, supporting his $3.4 million prediction.
Despite this optimistic projection, Hayes cautioned that
Bitcoin’s price may not necessarily reach the exact $3.4 million target. He emphasized the importance of identifying the correct direction of travel rather than focusing on precise price points.
He explained:
“My primary objective is to accurately predict the overall trend and to ensure that I’m invested in the asset with the greatest potential for growth, assuming that a future Trump administration pursues a policy of large-scale money printing to achieve its objectives.”
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading around $112,927, approximately 9% below its all-time high of $124,167 recorded in August, based on
CryptoSlate data.