Hedera HBAR: The Path to $0.25

Hedera (CRYPTO:HBAR) would need a staggering 209.6% surge to reach $0.25, a level it last saw on September 19, 2025. Investors are keeping a close eye on this landmark because HBAR maintained this price for several weeks during mid-2025, closing July 2025 at approximately $0.251.

Currently, however, HBAR’s price is declining. The token is trading around $0.081, marking a drop of 4.8% in the past day, 14.3% over the last two weeks, and 14.8% for the past month. It remains 85.8% below its all-time high of $0.57.

In October, HBAR has fluctuated between $0.107 and $0.080, hovering just above this month’s lowest point. This drop follows a rise to $0.131 in September. So, what steps are needed for HBAR to reach $0.25 again?

HBAR Requires an $11 Billion Market Cap to Achieve $0.25

To assess HBAR’s price target, one must examine its market capitalization, calculated as the product of the coin’s price and its circulating supply. With a current market cap of approximately $3.56 billion, HBAR would need to climb to $0.25 to achieve around $11 billion.

Unfortunately, an increasing supply of HBAR complicates this objective. There are roughly 44 billion HBAR tokens circulating out of a total cap of 50 billion. This growing supply means that returning to the previous price point now requires much more investment than it did when HBAR surpassed $0.25 in 2021.

The disparity in market capitalization is striking. When HBAR approached $0.122 in late September, its market cap was around $5.35 billion. If we consider today’s supply, that same price would yield a market cap of about $25.1 billion at its previous peak of $0.57 on September 15, 2021.

Rising Network Activity in Hedera, Yet Fees Don’t Enhance HBAR Demand

Hedera operates as a public network that enables businesses to record data, issue tokens, and facilitate payments. Each transaction incurs a fee, charged in HBAR, which Hedera establishes at fixed amounts in U.S. dollars. This pricing structure accounts for much of the demand for HBAR.

Recently, Hedera has experienced a remarkable 168.4% rise in transactions, with a 12.3% increase in total value locked (TVL) in its applications, reaching $33.2 million. Despite this progress, the price of HBAR is trending downward. Transaction fees are only a fraction of a cent, meaning that even significant activity does not generate enough buying pressure.

Additionally, on October 21, Hedera introduced its Network MCP on testnet—an initiative that allows AI agents to propose transactions such as sending HBAR or issuing tokens. However, since this is a testnet, where tokens have no market value, it hasn’t yet stimulated demand for HBAR.

Potential Boosts for HBAR from IBM Collaborations and SEC Requests

Hedera has partnered with IBM (NYSE:IBM | IBM Price Prediction) on its IDTrust initiative, linked with the watsonx AI platform. IDTrust helps secure identity credentials for AI agents via the Hedera Consensus Service. Furthermore, Hedera has joined the UK’s Wholesale Digital Markets Champion Taskforce, while projects like HashPack and SODAX are aiming to enhance accessibility to tokenized assets on Hedera. However, neither HashPack nor SODAX has disclosed its fee structures yet.

These enterprise collaborations have previously spurred short-lived spikes in HBAR’s price. For instance, when IBM unveiled a Hedera-based identity application for its cloud, HBAR surged 27% on September 28, only to retract by 16% the following day, closing September 29 near $0.102.

Additionally, new regulatory developments could encourage upward movement. On October 21, the HBAR Foundation, along with five other blockchain organizations, requested the SEC to formalize its interpretation from March 2026, allowing their tokens to be classified as digital commodities in the forthcoming Regulation Crypto Assets rule. However, the SEC may opt to maintain this interpretation as nonbinding guidance.

HBAR’s Future Depends on Bitcoin’s Performance for a Broader Market Rally

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) constitutes roughly 60% of the entire cryptocurrency market valuation, causing smaller assets like HBAR to often mirror its fluctuations. On October 21, Bitcoin experienced a rebound alongside a recovery in tech stocks, but then it dropped by 2% within 24 hours to approximately $81,800.

Nevertheless, HBAR has generally trailed Bitcoin during upward movements and has experienced steeper declines during downturns. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has surged 31.4%, while HBAR has gained only 18.6%. On a year-to-date basis, Bitcoin is down 3.8%, whereas HBAR has decreased by 20.9%.

Market sentiment appears to reflect neutral momentum. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at a neutral 51.

Is HBAR Likely to Reach $0.25 Again?

It appears unlikely that HBAR will recover the $0.25 threshold before the close of 2027. Attaining that price point would necessitate a 209.6% increase, an approximate market cap of $11 billion, and clear transparency regarding fee revenues from Hedera’s collaborators. If HBAR fails to surpass $0.10 by November 30 and if partners do not clarify their fee structures, it could retreat further toward $0.074, similar to its August close.

For HBAR to genuinely strive toward $0.25, several pivotal developments must transpire sequentially. Initially, HBAR must consistently close above $0.10 monthly, as noted in our October 17 analysis. Following that, it needs to exceed the September high of $0.131. Additionally, collaborators like IBM must provide insight into transaction fees, all the while Bitcoin needs to maintain its upward trajectory and attract investment into alternative coins.

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