This article explores the evolution of quantum technology and its potential implications for the cryptocurrency sector, specifically focusing on Bitcoin.
IBM has achieved what it terms “trusted quantum advantage,” showcasing a 70-qubit quantum computer that executed a task surpassing traditional methods and confirmed the results’ accuracy statistically. In a conversation with CNBC, IBM’s CEO Arvind Krishna indicated that quantum computing is projected to start influencing revenue by 2028 or 2029, with the potential to generate $1 trillion in economic value by the end of the 2030s.
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IBM’s recent experiment employed an innovative error-correcting technique to execute 2,415 logical two-qubit operations within 15 minutes, bringing the logical error rate down to approximately one-tenth of its physical counterpart. This development indicates that the quantum threat is becoming more imminent: over 34 percent of the BTC▲$62,630.00 supply is stored in addresses with exposed public keys.
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The Threat of Quantum Computers to Bitcoin and Expected Timelines for Crisis
Bitcoin (BTC) relies on elliptic curve cryptography for its digital signatures. Experts believe that compromising the network could necessitate thousands of logical qubits on a quantum computer that is fault-tolerant—a figure much greater than IBM’s 70-qubit showcase. However, advancements are accelerating: in March 2026, Google Quantum AI announced a reduction in the estimated qubits needed to breach elliptic curve cryptography by nearly 20 times, bringing it down to less than 500,000.
As outlined in BIP-361, approximately 6.8 million BTC are stored in susceptible addresses. Although technical solutions are available—developers integrated BIP-360 into the proposals repository as of February 2026—BIP-361 remains a subject of debate. Unlike regulated financial institutions, Bitcoin does not have an established roadmap for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography, leaving it vulnerable.
Further reading: Is the Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin Real or Hype?
The Commercialization of Quantum Computing: IBM’s Projections and Industry Responses
IBM conducted this experiment in collaboration with Qedma and Algorithmiq, showcasing that a quantum computer can tackle specific computational challenges more efficiently than traditional systems while also validating outcomes. The IBM system enabled researchers to identify material behaviors that conventional computing couldn’t reveal—potential applications stretch across batteries, innovative materials, fusion energy, and pharmaceuticals.
In May 2026, IBM unveiled plans to create a dedicated facility for quantum chip manufacturing, backed by $1 billion from the Commerce Department’s CHIPS initiative and another billion from the company itself. Krishna indicated that the pace of commercialization is still up for debate due to high error rates, hardware complexities, and scaling hurdles.
Institutional participants have begun to address the quantum risk. Galaxy Digital initiated a quantum readiness program for Bitcoin on July 21, allocating up to $5 million in funding for developers. Coinbase established an Independent Quantum Advisory Council. Both companies are among the nine founding members of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, which, alongside BlackRock, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Strategy, has pledged $15 million to the cause.
Discover more: How to Achieve Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Without a Fork — Proposal for a Post-Quantum Transaction Model