Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy, which was previously known as MicroStrategy, has declared that the next Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull phase has commenced. He contends that this bullish trend began when Bitcoin’s price rebounded from its 200-week moving average after reaching its bear-market low in late June. Saylor also points to factors such as bank lending against Bitcoin and the increasing tokenization of assets as contributors.
While I have my doubts about his primary evidence, which relies heavily on price movement, I align with Saylor’s conclusion that the upcoming bull run has likely begun. Here’s why I believe he is correct.
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Profit Takers Outnumber Loss Takers by 4 to 1
According to Saylor’s analysis, the 200-week moving average reflects roughly four years’ worth of weekly closing prices. Bitcoin’s price low on June 30 was $58,525, which was about 6.5% below that average, aligning with previous bear market lows.
However, this method isn’t perfect; in 2022, Bitcoin dropped 34.2% below the 200-week moving average. There’s no guarantee that the price must stabilize once it falls beneath this average.
I prefer evaluating Bitcoin’s market status by looking at additional elements, such as which investors are selling at a loss and which ones are buying.
At the lows in June, those selling Bitcoin at a loss outnumbered those selling at a profit by a staggering ratio of 12 to 1, reflecting a typical bottoming point in past bear markets. Significantly, this trend reversed in late August, as profit-takers began to exceed loss-takers. Throughout the course of every bull market since 2011, profit-taking has consistently outpaced loss-taking. Currently, around four profits are realized for every loss incurred.
This suggests that Bitcoin has indeed transitioned from a bear to a bull market. Furthermore, long-term holders resumed net purchases of Bitcoin starting in early July, adding more evidence to support the claim of a new bullish phase.
Upcoming Halving Event on the Horizon
One aspect missing from Saylor’s considerations (which he likely recognizes) is the looming halving event that will halve the number of newly mined Bitcoin. This halving is expected for early April 2028.
Historically, significant price rallies before halvings typically last 400-518 days, often resulting in gains of 100% or more. This means the next uptrend could commence between early November 2026 and February 2027.