Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a surge, breaking above $112,000 in the past week. This upward movement hints at a possible new bullish trend for the dominant cryptocurrency. Many observers speculate this might signify the final stage of Bitcoin’s current market cycle, as well as the broader crypto landscape.
Market commentator CryptoBirb has suggested that this positive momentum could persist for approximately 50 additional days. They highlight that Bitcoin is already roughly 95% of the way through its present cycle, calculated from the lows registered in November of 2022 – a period spanning 1,017 days.
Potential Bitcoin Peak Approaching in 50 Days
Historically, Bitcoin’s bull runs have tended to culminate between 1,060 and 1,100 days following significant bottom formations. Based on this data, the potential peak for this current cycle could fall between late October and mid-November 2025.
The analysis emphasizes the common pattern observed between Bitcoin halving occurrences and the subsequent price peaks that follow. Since the last halving event in April 2024, 503 days have elapsed. Historical trends indicate that price tops generally manifest within 518 to 580 days after such events.
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The chart illustrates Bitcoin’s journey, placing it between 77% and 86% along this projected timeline. This places it within what the analyst has termed the “hot zone”—a time marked by increased volatility and the possibility of substantial price fluctuations.
However, CryptoBirb also offers a word of caution. Historically, Bitcoin has often undergone a substantial correction following its peaks, frequently declining by 70% to 80% over a period of 370 to 410 days.
This potential bearish phase is anticipated around the first and second quarters of 2026. Historically, the probability of a bear market occurring in that year is very high. Before this anticipated downturn, the analyst anticipates a final upswing, with approximately 50 days remaining before a potential market zenith.
September has commonly been regarded as a less favorable month for Bitcoin, typically experiencing an average decrease of 6.17%. While the third quarter can show mixed results, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average generally leans toward a decline, influenced by more significant losses.
The usual seasonal trends point to a possible recovery in October and November, following a weaker September. The analyst has highlighted September 17th as an important date to monitor.
Key Support and Resistance Thresholds
From a technical perspective, crucial support levels are located at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300.
The daily chart provides further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has identified local support zones between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance is observed between $113,000 and $114,100.
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Presently, both short-term and long-term trading indicators suggest a bearish outlook. CryptoBirb contends that a drop below the key support levels of $107,000 to $108,000 could amplify negative sentiment, potentially leading to further corrections in the range of 20% to 30%.
Encouragingly, cryptocurrency miners appear to be in a good position, with the mining cost around $95,400. This suggests a healthy market environment with limited risk of miners giving up (capitulation).
Finally, the analyst emphasizes the potential for a market top to coincide with the beginning of altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb is advising to watch October 22nd, as it may prove to be a crucial date in Bitcoin’s overall market cycle.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at $112,886, a decrease of almost 11% from its all-time high values.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com