Historically, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization has shown impressive performance during this month, averaging gains exceeding 18% and achieving positive returns in 10 out of the last 13 years,
as reported by CoinGlass
.
The historical trends of October have even led crypto investors to refer to it as “Uptober.”
What are the expectations for Bitcoin this year? Traders on Kalshi predict a price of $91,000 for Bitcoin, with 52% probability of it surpassing that level at the start of the month.
For informational purposes only. This is not trading advice. Refer to the full disclaimer below.
Bitcoin stabilizes around $84,000
Just over a week ago, Bitcoin surged past $86,000 for the first time since January, sparking excitement in the cryptocurrency markets. However, since then, BTC has experienced a decline and is currently consolidating around $84,000, recently priced at $84,300 on Thursday afternoon.
At this level, the price has remained relatively stable, showing only a 0.6% increase over the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
Uptober? What’s Bitcoin’s potential this October?
Despite possible challenges, Kalshi traders are optimistic for Bitcoin this month. How much higher can BTC actually go?
In October 2025, Bitcoin fell by 3.69%, but it had previously increased by 10.7% and 28.5% in the two years before that. A considerable rise isn’t out of the realm of possibility, with traders currently estimating a 72% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $87,500 this month.
More substantial gains, such as a 7% price increase to over $90,000, have a probability of 56%, making it a viable outcome.
In October 2025, Bitcoin began the month around $114,000, quickly climbing to a new all-time high of $126,296 within the first few days. However, according to Kalshi traders, the chances of reaching $100,000 this month—a rise of more than 18.6% from current levels—are just 9%.
Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 by year-end?
While the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this month is low, traders believe it is far more probable to achieve this milestone by the year’s conclusion.
If it reaches this level, it will mark the first time Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 since November 2025, nearly a year ago.
Nonetheless, the recent uptick has positioned the asset for a positive annual return. CoinGecko data shows that Bitcoin is now only down 3.8% year-to-date.
Only three other cryptocurrencies—Chainlink (LINK), Stellar Lumens (XLM), and Ethereum (ETH)—are projected to have better chances of finishing the year positively.
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