Polymarket has unveiled new 5-minute crypto price prediction contracts through its US application. The selected cryptocurrencies for these contracts are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP.
Operating as a binary options market, users can make up or down predictions, with successful forecasts resulting in a payout of $1 per contract.
To enhance fairness, settlements utilize Chainlink’s 60-second Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP). This methodology averages the price of a digital asset over the final 60 seconds, effectively hindering last-minute price manipulations and ensuring integrity.
In case of any ties (where the predicted price matches the initial price), these will automatically be resolved in favor of the “up” position.
Polymarket’s Return to the US Market
Polymarket initially launched in the US back in 2020 but had to shut down operations due to a $1.4 million penalty for providing unregistered derivatives.
In July 2025, the company made a significant move by acquiring QCX LLC for $112 million, aiming to re-establish itself in the US market. This acquisition also included a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enabling a regulated connection to be established between Web3 digital wallets and Polymarket.
Earlier this month, Polymarket US rolled out contracts with durations of 15 minutes, hourly, and daily, culminating in today’s launch of the 5-minute contract.
Market Growth and Competition
While Polymarket is a leader in the global events market, Kalshi currently takes the lead in US consumer engagement. This advantage stems from Kalshi’s legal establishment in 2020, giving it a significant 5-year head start over Polymarket. The platform has also focused on attracting deep institutional liquidity, forming partnerships with notable platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull. Additionally, Kalshi offers a broad spectrum of contracts covering various events, from sports to economic indicators and weather.
In contrast, Polymarket primarily deals in contracts focused on cryptocurrencies and pop culture events. The platform’s operations remain distinct, currently accessible through a beta application that operates on an invite-only basis.
Both platforms are regulated by the CFTC; however, certain states like Nevada and Minnesota have entirely prohibited all prediction market platforms. Washington and Michigan restrict the trading of sports-related contracts, whereas states such as New York, Texas, and California are actively challenging the operations of prediction markets.
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