Start your day informed with the US Crypto News Morning Update—your concise briefing on the day’s critical cryptocurrency happenings.
Fuel up with your morning beverage as the crypto market anticipates another potentially game-changing period. A confluence of factors, ranging from a possible government impasse in Washington to significant leveraged positions taken by major crypto investors, could catapult Bitcoin (BTC) into unprecedented territory. Market observers are currently divided, debating whether this apparent strength is built to last or ultimately unsustainable.
Key Crypto Story: Analyst Geoff Kendrick Forecasts Bitcoin Surge to $135,000 Amid Government Shutdown Concerns
Bitcoin is potentially poised for a new record price level, according to Geoff Kendrick, who leads Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered.
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In an exclusive message shared with BeInCrypto, Kendrick projects that Bitcoin could “establish a fresh all-time-high in the coming week” and progress towards his previously stated Q3 target of $135,000, as detailed in a recent US Crypto News report.
He suggests the key factor driving this lies in the potential for a US government shutdown.
“This potential shutdown carries weight this time. When a similar shutdown occurred under the Trump administration (from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019), Bitcoin was in a fundamentally different position and showed minimal reaction. In the present environment, Bitcoin’s price is influenced by perceptions of risk surrounding the US government, notably expressed by its correlation with US treasury term premiums,” Kendrick explained.
On the Polymarket prediction platform, market participants are assigning a 60% probability to a shutdown lasting between 10 and 29 days, implying that a quick resolution is not anticipated.
Kendrick believes this backdrop will provide an ongoing environment where Bitcoin can outperform other assets as a protection against governmental instability and concerns regarding US creditworthiness.
Another crucial element is the direction of ETF investments. Gold ETFs have recently seen stronger inflows than Bitcoin ETFs, but Kendrick anticipates a reversal of this pattern.
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“Total Bitcoin ETF inflows have now reached USD58 billion, with USD23 billion occurring just in 2025. I foresee at least another $20 billion coming in before year’s end, a level which supports my $200,000 year-end prediction,” he stated.
Given that Uptober is now underway, and market liquidity appears to be aligning favorably for Bitcoin, Kendrick expects the market to reward those holding the cryptocurrency with a new price apex in the days ahead.
Aggressive Long Positions by Large Perpetual Futures Traders Introduce Opportunity and Volatility
While broad economic factors are grabbing headlines, data on blockchain transactions and derivatives trading suggests growing momentum for Bitcoin’s next significant price movement. Analysts at firms like CryptoQuant are pointing to a sharp increase in perpetual futures trading activity, primarily driven by substantial traders.
“Major Bitcoin perpetual futures traders have aggressively taken long positions on OKX, Bybit, and HTX exchanges. The taker buy ratio on OKX is currently the highest it has been since January 2023,” commented Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant.
According to Ki, the current market dynamic marks the fourth attempt to breach Bitcoin’s all-time high, with these large perpetual futures traders taking a leading role this time.
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Supporting this observation, analyst Maartunn noted that taker buy volume has exceeded sell volume by approximately $1.8 billion since the beginning of the month.
“Buyers in the futures market are increasing their activity… a clear signal of extensive long positions being established,” Maartunn observed.
This activity has sparked discussions about the possibility of a rally fueled by high levels of leverage. In a recent analysis, Maartunn explained that rallies mainly sustained by borrowed funds, rather than long-term asset accumulation, are inherently unstable.
“While it may appear impressive initially, such a market structure is extremely fragile and vulnerable to a sudden collapse,” he cautioned.
The risk lies in the potential for significant long positions to trigger widespread liquidations if momentum slows, dampening spot market demand even if prices are on the rise.
This situation makes current valuations more speculative than grounded in solid fundamentals. However, with large trader positions aligning with macroeconomic factors like the potential government shutdown and increased ETF investments, the environment could be ready for Bitcoin to finally surpass its prior all-time high.
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Quick Crypto Insights
Here’s a brief overview of other important US crypto news to watch for today:
Pre-Market Status of Crypto-Related Stocks
| Company | Closing Price (October 2) | Pre-Market Performance |
| MicroStrategy (MSTR) | $353.33 | $352.00 (-0.026%) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $372.07 | $373.50 (+0.38%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $36.52 | $36.89 (+1.01%) |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | $18.79 | $18.98 (+1.01%) |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $19.25 | $19.36 (+0.57%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $18.10 | $18.13 (+0.17%) |
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