Adoption of stablecoins is finally gaining traction in Western markets. While stable currencies backed by real-world assets have demonstrated significant value and utility in developing countries, adoption within the US, the UK, and across Europe has been slower. This can be attributed to regulatory uncertainties and the robust existing digital payment infrastructures, particularly prevalent in Europe and the UK.
However, the landscape is shifting in 2025. The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in July, and the introduction of Tempo, a payment-optimized blockchain by Stripe and Paradigm in early September, mark pivotal moments.
The new legislation establishes a framework for federal licensing of digital tokens pegged to the dollar. Tempo, described by Paradigm, Stripe’s partner, is envisioned as a network designed primarily for stablecoin transactions, supporting payroll processing, international remittances, marketplace payouts, and automated machine-to-machine payments.
According to analyses by Latham & Watkins and WilmerHale, the GENIUS Act mandates that all licensed payment stablecoins must be backed 100% by cash and short-term Treasury bills. It also requires issuers to provide monthly reserve disclosures. The Act also defines these stablecoins as non-securities under federal law, assigning regulatory oversight to banking authorities and the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) for non-bank entities.
While the law prohibits issuers from directly paying interest to stablecoin holders, the market is exploring “rewards” mechanisms at distribution platforms. This creates a potential policy conflict, as noted by WIRED and banking trade groups like the Bank Policy Institute and ABA Banking Journal. The legislation grants stablecoin holders superpriority status in issuer bankruptcies, safeguarding redemptions but possibly limiting reorganization options.
McKinsey estimates current daily stablecoin transaction volume at $20 to $30 billion and projects a growth trajectory to at least $250 billion within the next three years. This growth is expected as merchant acceptance expands and B2B payouts leverage low-fee networks.
Their research highlights Solana’s near-instantaneous, sub-penny transactions as a benchmark for cost and speed. Meanwhile, Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoin settlement deeper into their infrastructure. Visa incorporated EURC and new blockchain networks in July, while Mastercard enabled USDC and EURC settlement for acquirers across EEMEA in August.
Stablecoin Adoption
A classic adoption curve suggests the next 12-36 months are critical. In 2024, U.S. card purchases totaled approximately $11.9 trillion, with merchant processing fees reaching $187.2 billion (averaging around 1.57%), according to the Nilson Report and CSP Daily News.
If even 5% of that spending shifts to stablecoin payments at a total cost of 10 basis points, annual merchant savings could approach $8.8 billion. A lower 2-basis-point network fee could unlock over $17 billion in annual savings with just 10% migration. These calculations don’t factor in the speed and foreign exchange benefits, which are crucial for international transactions.
Considering the float aspect, the U.S. Treasury market reveals issuer economics under the interest ban. With three-month Treasury bill yields around 4%, a $2 trillion stablecoin float by 2028 (a figure discussed in Treasury documents and policy analyses) would generate roughly $80 billion in gross yield on reserves.
Since issuers are barred from directly paying interest, this yield covers compliance, operational costs, and partner incentives. “Rewards” programs on exchanges are testing the degree to which this income will be shared with users. The net interest margin captured by issuers varies significantly, but even capturing 25-50% would equate to $20-$40 billion annually if the float reaches $2 trillion.
Stablecoin Revenue Projections
Throughput projections further solidify the potential on the network side. At $250 billion per day by 2028, annualized settlement volume would exceed $90 trillion.
A 1-3 basis point network fee would generate $9-$27 billion in yearly revenue for Layer 1 or Layer 2 networks. A 10-basis-point fee would imply approximately $91 billion. However, current open-ledger payment fees typically hover around the single-digit basis point range, reflecting the sub-penny per-transfer costs cited by McKinsey and Visa’s Solana technical analysis.
This difference creates opportunities for value capture through account abstraction, fraud prevention measures, and compliance services, rather than solely relying on transaction fees.
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Success will hinge on regulatory compliance, the scope of fiat currency support, and enterprise-level integrations. USDC and EURC are positioned to benefit from existing network and card-scheme settlement infrastructure. PYUSD is strategically placed for consumer payouts at the wallet level.
Bank-issued tokens could find a niche in B2B settlement where treasury departments seek same-day cash reconciliation with bank-backed guarantees. However, broader cross-border coverage and developer tooling will be critical challenges to overcome.
Tempo aims to scale enterprise payments through partnerships spanning AI, banking, and e-commerce. Concurrently, Solana and Base have witnessed increased transfer volumes thanks to their low costs and user-friendly tools, a trend documented in data from Artemis and Chainalysis.
A short-term challenge is fragmentation, with Chainalysis tracking hundreds of stablecoins. Despite this, top-down flows are increasingly concentrated in USDT and USDC. Visa and Mastercard are continuing to build out their integration capabilities.
The Big Picture
The broader economic context suggests potential for a larger float, even without consumer yield. The TBAC’s July briefing included stablecoin reserve demand in its models, which will contribute to the front-end Treasury buyer base. The GENIUS Act’s reserve rules mandate that most assets be held in cash and short-term bills with maturities under 93 days.
With the stablecoin market capitalization already exceeding $285 billion, according to DeFiLlama, and daily utility expanding through card network settlement and on-chain payroll trials, the path to a multi-trillion dollar float by the late 2020s no longer depends solely on crypto trading cycles.
The ECB’s call for safeguards on foreign stablecoins emphasizes the role of global policy in shaping the distribution of the float and the relative market share of different currencies.
The risks remain clear. The rewards workaround is receiving criticism from banking groups, including the BPI and National Law Review contributors, and could be limited by subsequent legislation, impacting user incentives.
While superpriority for holders in the event of bankruptcy reduces run risk for users, it may increase resolution costs for issuers, raising the barriers to entry. Compliance with sanctions and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) regulations will add fixed overhead costs, favoring larger, scaled issuers and networks.
These constraints reinforce why the revenue projections should be viewed as ranges that compress as competition intensifies. Enterprise integrations, rather than simply raw throughput, will determine profit margins. Unintended consequences could disadvantage smaller issuers.
The immediate watchlist includes: Visa and Mastercard’s full-scale rollout of stablecoin settlement beyond pilot programs, the initial Tempo-driven merchant and payroll payment flows, and the Treasury Department’s implementing guidance under the GENIUS Act, covering licensing, disclosures, and reserve composition.
If the McKinsey throughput projections are accurate, the fee structures and float economics collectively explain why stablecoins are now directly competing with cards and bank wires regarding speed and cost. The potential for $250 billion in daily settlement volume by 2028 is firmly within reach.