A thought-provoking question recently surfaced on X, courtesy of Bitcoin commentator Crypto Tea, echoing a sentiment felt by many: If substantial Bitcoin sell-offs, like a $2 billion dump from previously inactive holders, can trigger significant price declines, then why hasn’t the consistent buying pressure from figures like Michael Saylor and the influx of ETF investments—amounting to over $80 billion—propelled Bitcoin to unprecedented heights?
Bitcoin Therapist
shared
the post, simply stating the question.
“Explain how this is possible,” he pondered.
Abrupt Sales vs. Algorithmic Buys
Plan C, the creator of The Bitcoin Quantile Model, offered a concise explanation. A rapid $2 billion Bitcoin sale can rapidly destabilize the market, leading to a sharp downturn.
Conversely, the
$83 billion investment seen in 2025
from entities like Michael Saylor and various ETFs appears to result in gradual, incremental price increases rather than dramatic surges. What causes this discrepancy?
Plan C clarified the logic:
“Easy. To compare the impact of trades, you need to consider the rate of trading by dividing the total dollars by the time over which they occurred.”
Essentially, price volatility is dictated by extreme fluctuations, not overall averages.
Large, immediate sell orders, especially when market liquidity is low, can deplete order books and precipitate significant price drops. Algorithmic buying, conversely, is intentionally structured to be discreet, distributed, and to prevent market disruption. While $83 billion in purchases throughout a year establishes a strong base price, it doesn’t inherently cause a meteoric rise unless the buying accelerates.
The Crypto Investor Blueprint:
A 5-Day Course On Bagholding, Insider Front-Runs, and Missing Alpha
The ‘Paper’ Bitcoin Consideration
However, there’s another factor to consider: the impact of “paper” Bitcoin, as raised by The Bitcoin Therapist. What about the Bitcoin supply seemingly available on exchanges? Plan C acknowledges this unknown element:
“That is an unknown X factor for sure, but I have no way of knowing the degree to which there are paper Bitcoins. My answer assumes there are none. But if there’s a significant amount, it would be another contributing factor to muted price moves.”
Reported purchase volumes could be misleading if a significant amount of “paper” Bitcoin (IOUs or synthetic assets) are exchanged rather than actual cryptocurrency, creating the illusion of strong buying interest without real coins being moved off the exchanges.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price
Ultimately, the price difference can be attributed to speed, implementation, and market infrastructure. The ETF and institutional acquisitions in 2025 were systematic, consistent, and spread throughout numerous exchanges and over-the-counter markets, sometimes facilitated by algorithmic trading systems designed to minimize price volatility.
In contrast, market corrections typically occur abruptly and intensely, often during periods of limited liquidity.
Therefore, when market downturns are triggered by substantial sell-offs, it’s crucial to remember that speed and origins are just as important as quantity. A steady flow builds stability. Rapid shocks create turbulence. And somewhere within these dynamics, paper Bitcoin acts as an unpredictable factor.