Bitcoin’s journey toward new record highs has met persistent resistance in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency market currently finds itself at a pivotal point, prompting questions and concerns about Bitcoin’s future direction. Here’s a look at how recent on-chain data is addressing some of these concerns:
Why $117,000 Has Been a Stumbling Block for Bitcoin
Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, recently reaffirmed his earlier forecast in a social media post on X, highlighting the $117,000 mark as a key resistance level for Bitcoin’s price.
Wedson referenced a prior analysis from the previous week, which used two key on-chain indicators—the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price—to arrive at this conclusion.
The CVDD Channel tracks the volume of older Bitcoin being moved on the network. This metric is typically used to identify potential long-term support or resistance zones based on the behavior of these aged coins.
The Market Mean Price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. The Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price, an extension of this, shows the average cost basis adjusted using Fibonacci ratios. This provides mathematical levels of potential extension or retracement relative to the average Bitcoin holder’s cost.
According to Wedson’s analysis, these two metrics converged, suggesting $117,000 as a price point where a pullback was likely. This convergence indicates not just technical importance at this price level but also potential uncertainty within the Bitcoin market.
What’s The Outlook For Bitcoin?
In the same X post, Wedson identified key price levels to monitor for insights into Bitcoin’s price trajectory, and what a potential break above or below these levels could signify.
Looking at the optimistic scenario, Wedson suggested that if Bitcoin breaks through $118,600, it would strongly signal increasing bullish momentum, potentially “clearing the path for the next significant upward surge.”
Wedson also cautioned about a possible downside scenario. He believes a drop below the $113,700 support level could cause a quick decline in Bitcoin’s price, potentially falling as low as $110,000.
A more significant correction could even push Bitcoin down to $100,000—a price level that might attract institutional buyers. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $115,660, showing relatively little change in the last 24 hours.