Disclaimer: VanEck has investments in Bitcoin and may hold positions in the Bitcoin mining companies discussed below.
Key Highlights: Mid-July to Mid-August:
- Bitcoin (BTC) Sets New Record: Bitcoin price jumped to $124,000 as CME basis hit its highest point of the year. Our year-end price forecast for BTC remains at $180,000.
- Divergence Among Bitcoin Miners: While APLD experienced significant gains, most other miners underperformed, even with U.S.-based miners now contributing 31.5% of the global hashrate.
- Decline in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) mNAVs: Reduced volatility hampered financing opportunities and overall growth.
1. Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) initially dipped to $112,000 in early August, with 92% of on-chain holdings remaining profitable. However, it then rallied, reaching a new peak of $124,000 on August 13, surpassing the previous high of $123,838 from July. Funding rates on CME futures soared to 9%, a level not seen since February 2025, indicating renewed market enthusiasm. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) collectively added +54,000 BTC and +72,000 BTC, respectively, in July.
CME Bitcoin Futures: 3-Month Rolling Basis (Annualized)
Source: Glassnode data as of August 13, 2025. Historical performance provides no assurance of future returns. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the securities mentioned.
2. On-Chain Analytics and Market Share
Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market decreased from 64.5% at the start of July to 59.7% by mid-August, as Ethereum gained ground. The number of network transactions rose by 26% month-over-month to 12.9 million, the highest figure since November 2024. Simultaneously, median transaction fees dropped by 13% to 421 satoshis, the lowest since September 2024, partly due to decreased activity in ordinal inscriptions, which were at their second-lowest level since August 2024.
1 The 30-day and 365-day changes are relative to the 30-day average, not absolute values.
Source: Glassnode data as of August 11, 2025. Historical performance is not indicative of future returns. This document is not intended as investment advice to buy or sell specific assets.
3. Derivatives Activity and Volatility Trends
Options markets indicated strong bullish sentiment, with the call/put ratio increasing to 3.21x, the highest since June 2024. Spending on call premiums rose by 37% month-over-month to $792 million. Implied volatility decreased to just 32%, significantly lower than the one-year average of 50%, resulting in lower option prices. A +25% out-of-the-money 1-year call option now costs approximately 6% of the spot price, compared to 18% in late 2024. Total option premiums reached $1.1 billion in the last 30 days, raising the potential for a sudden increase in volatility as investors return from summer vacations.
Bitcoin Volatility at Its Lowest Point Since Fall 2023
Source: Glassnode data as of August 12, 2025. Prior results do not guarantee future success. This should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
4. Overview of the Bitcoin Mining Sector
The Bitcoin hashrate reached an all-time high of 902 EH/s in August, a 47% increase year-over-year. Revenue per EH/s improved to $59,400, the highest since December 2024. Key developments include Hive Digital reaching 14 EH/s, Cleanspark exceeding 50 EH/s with over 1 GW of contracted power, and CIFR’s Black Pearl achieving 3.4 EH/s. Equity performance varied significantly, with APLD jumping by approximately 54% due to strong earnings and expansion with CoreWeave. Conversely, CIFR declined by around 22% amid concerns regarding costs and AI/HPC strategies. Excluding APLD, the 13-miner equity index we monitor fell by approximately 4%, even as BTC and the S&P 500 each rose by about 2%.
A significant strategic shift involves TeraWulf (WULF) securing a deal to host 200 MW of AI computing power with Fluidstack (backed by Google), which will acquire an 8% stake through warrants. The initial phase (40 MW) is scheduled for the first half of 2026, with full deployment by year-end. This positions WULF as a key player in AI-integrated mining infrastructure.
Furthermore, U.S.-listed mining companies now control 31.5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, an increase from approximately 29% earlier this year. This represents a new high and underscores the trend of consolidation and the advantages of scale.
Bitcoin Miner Performance Mixed: Average Around 0%, BTC +2.5%
Source: Bloomberg data as of August 12, 2025. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No investment recommendations are implied.
5. Institutional Investment and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)
Public Bitcoin treasuries currently hold 951,000 BTC. MicroStrategy (MSTR), trading at 1.63x the value of its Bitcoin holdings, has spurred the creation of new DATs aiming to replicate its equity premium. *However*, mNAVs for MSTR (-16%), MTPLF (-62%), and SMLR (-12%) decreased in July. DAT financing is strongly correlated with Bitcoin volatility, which supports the issuance of convertible debt and equity. With lower volatility, issuance capacity, and consequently mNAV growth, may remain constrained. The following chart highlights this mNAV compression, showing that Metaplanet’s higher mNAV results from tax, regulatory, and financial efficiencies, and demonstrating how valuations have changed since June.
For a more detailed analysis of MSTR and the fundamentals of Digital Asset Treasuries, please see **our previous analysis**.
mNAV Compression in Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) – Metaplanet Compared to Competitors
Metaplanet’s mNAV Benefits from Favorable Tax, Regulatory, and Financial Conditions
Source: Bloomberg data as of August 12, 2025. Past results are not indicative of future performance. This information is for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
| MSTR | MTPLF | SMLR | |
| mNAV Change Since June | -16% | -62% | -12% |
Source: Bloomberg data as of August 13, 2025. Historical data does not guarantee future financial outcomes. Not a recommendation to buy or sell named securities.
6. Potential Risks and Points to Watch
As we move into the autumn months, several interconnected risks and opportunities come into focus. Substantial outstanding options positions elevate the likelihood that even modest volatility could trigger significant price fluctuations due to dealer hedging. For DATs, a sustained period of low volatility may limit their ability to raise capital, leading to further mNAV contraction. In the mining sector, operational efficiency and the integration of AI/HPC workloads will likely be key factors in differentiating performance. Macroeconomic trends and the return of investors after the summer could either reinforce Bitcoin’s upward trajectory or trigger profit-taking. *However, we maintain our year-end BTC price target of $180,000.*
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