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A weekly close below the average level may indicate a failed breakout, potentially slowing down bullish activity.
- Bitcoin’s price hovered around $76,000, which is only 0.6% above its 50-week moving average.
- This marks Bitcoin’s first return to the 50-week average in September since November 2025.
- According to Alex Thorn from Galaxy, during four out of five completed bear markets, the initial crossover of the 50-week average often signaled the market bottom.
On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped close to its 50-week moving average, putting a weekly closing streak above this important trend line in jeopardy.
The leading cryptocurrency was trading near $76,000, just 0.6% above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $75,580. The 50-week SMA reflects the average closing price of Bitcoin over the previous 50 weeks, or approximately one year, and is often regarded by traders as a sign of long-term market direction.
The downward trend started on Thursday, when Bitcoin experienced its largest single-day decline since June, dropping 5.5% from approximately $80,100 to $75,700. This sell-off continued into Thursday, hitting a low of $74,720, which briefly placed it about 1.1% below the average. However, Bitcoin managed to recover by session’s end, finishing above the average at $75,800.
A Challenging Trend Line
Bitcoin has only recently returned above the average. It concluded the week of September 20 with a price of $81,150, according to Cointelegraph, referring to TradingView data. At that time, the 50-week moving average was approximately $78,780, marking Bitcoin’s first weekly close above this line since November 9, 2025.
Alex Thorn, who leads overall research at Galaxy, has closely monitored this level. In an August research note, he mentioned that the 50-week average had acted as a resistance level in prior bear markets. Historically, in four of the five bear markets that ended, the first breakout above this level marked the bottom.
Galaxy also cautioned that this indication isn’t infallible. Of the 13 instances where the price crossed above the average during past bear markets, two led to a lower low—both during the downturn from 2021 to 2022.
Bitcoin managed to stay above this level for seven consecutive weeks as of the close on November 1, finishing at $78,220, or 3.3% over the average, as reported by Galaxy. However, since then, that buffer has narrowed to below 1%.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin’s price stood at $75,990, showing no significant change over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ territory, with typical discussion levels noted over the last day.
Weakening Short-Term Momentum
Bitcoin was trading about 5.5% below its 10-week simple moving average of $80,522, based on Koyfin data. The 10-week line crossed above the 50-week line in October but has started to stabilize. Meanwhile, the 50-week average continues to decline, having fallen from above $100,000 at the beginning of the year, according to Koyfin.
The upcoming test will occur during the weekly close on November 8; finishing above the 50-week average would result in eight consecutive weeks above this line.
A close below it would mark the first decline since reclaiming this level in September, potentially reigniting concerns about a false breakout.
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