Analyst
Published:
Key Points
Bitcoin witnesses the entry of new large investors and increased accumulation at
higher price levels—could this signal the beginning of a new bullish
accumulation trend?
Bitcoin’s [BTC]
remarkable durability continues to be reflected in the Fear and Greed Index.
The index has rebounded from the 40 mark twice since the market uncertainty
(FUD) in April.
In essence, each descent into “fear” has been quickly met with buying activity,
restoring market sentiment to a neutral level, which is usually when accumulation
starts.
Further supporting this idea, a new wallet acquired 320 BTC ($36.45 million)
directly from Gemini on September 11th. Notably, this sets its cost basis around
$113,000, coinciding with a three-point increase in the Fear and Greed Index.
Source: X (Onchain Lens)
Simply put, this signifies the introduction of new capital into Bitcoin.
Why is this significant? Bitcoin has just endured three consecutive weeks of
consistent
selling pressure
from long-dormant older large holders (“OG whales”). The all-time high (ATH) of
$124,000 in mid-August triggered a substantial distribution phase, causing the price
to fall to $107,000.
Now, with new large wallets absorbing market fluctuations and providing significant
buying support, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are changing. This shift might push the
Fear and Greed Index into “extreme greed” territory.
Bitcoin Supply Curve Reset by Whale Activity
This new wallet activity has shifted Bitcoin’s risk profile towards risk-on.
The
Fear and Greed Index
increased to 47, while BTC saw a 0.13% intraday increase and settled in the
$114,000 range, giving the new wallet a 1.06% unrealized profit on its initial
investment.
Looking at the bigger picture, this activity is linked to a larger structural
transformation. The Realized Cap for Bitcoin held by new large investors reached a
record 45.8%, showing increasing accumulation at higher cost levels and a gradual
transfer of supply from older to newer participants.
Source: CryptoQuant
In simple terms, the withdrawal of 320 BTC is just the beginning of a larger shift.
Supporting this shift, the
realized cap
of older Bitcoin whales has dropped from 60% at the $124,000 ATH to 54% at the time
of writing. This is happening even as BTC has recovered almost 5% from $107,000,
which indicates new capital is entering the market and absorbing supply.
According to AMBCrypto, this signifies a significant change in Bitcoin’s supply
dynamics.
New investors are entering the market at higher cost bases, potentially starting a
broader accumulation phase as renewed market optimism begins to emerge.