Since its debut in January 2024, the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accrued a net total of $57 billion. The recent outflow seen last week constitutes only about 1.2% of this amount. The rise in bond yields might be a factor behind the selling activity. For instance, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury reached 5.31% last Monday, marking its highest closing figure this year, offering investors a safer investment alternative.
Moreover, this recent trend is mild in comparison to a more severe period earlier this year. From mid-May to early July, the ETFs experienced eight consecutive weeks of outflows, amounting to approximately $8.3 billion, over 12 times the latest week’s figure. During that timeframe, Bitcoin plummeted from around $80,700 to below $59,000, experiencing a decline exceeding 25%. Additionally, the ETFs have reported outflows on nearly half of the trading days this year, which he described as a typical occurrence.
Strategy focuses on equities over Bitcoin
In a recent move, Strategy purchased only 250 $BTC for $21.5 million between October 5 and 11, marking its smallest acquisition of Bitcoin in 2026. During the same week, it allocated $192.4 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, nearly nine times its investment in Bitcoin.
Currently, the company possesses 848,250 $BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $75,444.
Who’s selling
Most of the selling activity has originated from traders utilizing leverage. On the Binance platform, open interest in Bitcoin futures decreased from approximately 97,400 $BTC to around 92,400 $BTC within the week, reflecting a decline of about 5%. Funding rates have dropped close to zero, indicating that excess leverage has been cleared.
However, not all the indicators are optimistic. On October 6 alone, roughly 25,000 $BTC were transferred to exchanges, with an additional 5,300 $BTC netting between October 8 and 11. Transfers to exchanges can signify that holders are gearing up to sell.
Who’s buying
The analyst pinpointed two key forces keeping Bitcoin’s value stable. First are the spot market buyers. On Binance, aggressive buyers accounted for approximately 49% of the volume on October 7 and 8. This shifted to 55.6% on October 9, then to 52.7% and 56.3% subsequently, indicating that buyers showed up right after the lows, favoring the spot market over futures.
The second, and more significant factor, is long-term holders. About 63% of all Bitcoin has remained untouched for over a year. “Those coins are not being sold at $83,000, nor were they sold at $80,000,” he stated. When ETFs offload 8,000 $BTC into a market where most supply is stagnant, the impact on the price is minimal.
He also noted the true market average, reflecting the active investors’ average cost, which stands at about $79,250. The low experienced last week hovered just above this figure before buyers reentered the market.
Future market predictions
The analyst identified two potential trajectories, viewing them as roughly equally probable.
- The optimistic trajectory: A bounce from $80,944 could initiate a stronger ascent, aiming for near-term targets of $84,177 to $86,232. Following that, the daily chart suggests targets ranging from $88,597 to $97,637. This scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin dips below $80,393.
- The cautious trajectory: The present rally may merely be a temporary uplift, peaking at $84,956 to $85,434 within a resistance zone reaching up to $86,600. A rejection at this point could lead to another decline.
A decisive movement above $86,600 would make the bullish scenario more probable.
Importance of the $75,000 level
The analyst established a support zone ranging from $63,326 to $74,840, emphasizing that this is a safety net rather than a target. The upper limit of this zone aligns closely with two significant cost levels:
- Strategy’s average acquisition cost: $75,444
- Average cost for short-term holders: approximately $74,400
At this level, both the largest corporate holder and the average new buyer would break even. Their decisions to hold or sell in this area could influence Bitcoin’s next significant movement. The analyst noted that should a deeper correction occur, he would likely begin purchasing around the $75,000 mark.