Will Ripple’s 1B Unlock Propel XRP Past $1.54?

$XRP experiences new supply influx following Ripple’s release

Onchain Lens has disclosed that Ripple unlocked 1 billion $XRP from pre-established escrow accounts shortly after midnight UTC on October 1. The release occurred through four separate transactions, releasing 400 million, 300 million, 200 million, and 100 million $XRP.

Whale Alert independently tracked the 300 million $XRP transfer at 00:00:02 UTC, estimating its value at around $446.6 million when $XRP was priced near $1.49. Data from the $XRP Ledger had previously flagged 1 billion $XRP from Ripple’s escrows as available for release on this date.

However, just because 1 billion tokens are unlocked doesn’t mean they will all be sold immediately. Ripple has a history of reallocating part of its monthly distribution back into new escrow contracts, while the remaining tokens may be retained in company-managed wallets or utilized for operational activities.

This differentiation was highlighted in crypto.news’ analysis of Ripple’s 1 billion $XRP release earlier in September, where onchain data showed the unlock but left ambiguity regarding how much of it would actually make it to trading platforms.

Leading up to the October release, $XRP had already been having difficulty maintaining valuations above $1.50. This new token release introduces another supply event for traders to observe, although there is currently no confirmed evidence that the entire $1.49 billion notional value has been deposited on exchanges for trading.

ETF interest fails to propel $XRP past resistance levels

Institutional interest continues to rise with U.S. spot $XRP exchange-traded funds. Data from SoSoValue indicates that these financial products garnered $121.4 million in September, bringing total inflows since inception to approximately $1.79 billion.

Despite this interest, $XRP fell from its September 23 peak near $1.66 to about $1.49, consequently reducing the market valuation of tokens held within these funds.

Previous analysis by crypto.news concerning $XRP ETF demand and the $1.55 resistance noted that funds attracted $75.59 million during the week ending September 25. This brought total inflows to around $1.79 billion while $XRP continued to test the same resistance levels.

The price dynamics therefore have remained relatively subdued when compared to the scale of the reported inflows. Although ETF acquisitions are one aspect of demand, factors such as exchange selling, derivative positioning, Ripple’s distributions, and activity from other holders also play significant roles in influencing the market.

Hugo Philion, co-founder of Flare, questioned $XRP‘s weak response to a recent institutional advancement in Brazil. He described the price drop following this announcement as “illogical.” This observation is merely his viewpoint regarding market sentiment and does not imply that the Brazilian initiative will boost demand for $XRP.

Brazilian partnership integrates XRPL into regulated market infrastructure

On September 29, Ripple announced that CSD BR has begun utilizing the $XRP Ledger as an additional record-keeping and auditing layer for Brazilian financial assets, initially focusing on investment fund shares from BTG Pactual.

CSD BR manages the registration, depository, and settlement infrastructure for over BRL 22 trillion in registered assets. In its first phase, BTG Pactual fund shares will be tokenized using the XRPL Multi-Purpose Token standard and reflected on the public ledger. The existing systems at CSD BR will still serve as the official source for ownership and settlement records.

This deployment does not mean that BRL 22 trillion will be transitioned into $XRP or that there are direct purchases of the token involved. Ripple characterizes XRPL as a supplementary record layer granting authorized users a means to validate the accuracy of CSD BR’s records.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the integration of CSD BR with the $XRP Ledger involves a live regulated setting instead of a simple proof of concept. Future developments may include the issuance and trading of assets like Brazilian real estate and agribusiness receivables.

CSD BR has indicated that existing procedures will remain unchanged during the mirroring phase as the firm tests the technology in real-world conditions. Ripple’s statement notes that subsequent phases will be contingent on the successful validation of this initial phase.

XRPL lending initiative introduces another catalyst for the network

Developers on the $XRP Ledger are also progressing in implementing foreign lending infrastructure. In September, the $XRP Ledger Foundation rolled out version 3.4.0, incorporating LendingProtocolV1_1, which enhances proposed lending and vault capabilities by adding closed-ended vaults and cash-basis accounting.

Ripple’s technical materials clarify that closed-ended vaults operate through phases of subscriptions, investments, and redemptions. Cash-basis accounting would recognize interest as payments are made by borrowers, rather than recognizing the full scheduled interest upfront when a loan is originated.

Mainnet lending is not yet operational. Both the LendingProtocol and SingleAssetVault amendments are still undergoing validator voting and will require consistent network consensus for activation.

Previous coverage by crypto.news of $XRP Ledger 3.4.0 emphasized that the LendingProtocolV1_1 is not available simply due to software release; validator approval is a separate necessity.

This proposed system employs offchain assessments to evaluate borrowers, while documenting fixed-term loans and pooled vault assets directly through XRPL’s features. While activation would introduce new functionalities for the ledger, it does not guarantee an increase in demand for $XRP.

Will $XRP surpass the $1.54 mark?

The latest daily chart shows that the $XRP 14-period RSI stands at 55.70, down from its moving average of 59.27. The RSI is still above the neutral level of 50, although it has cooled since the previous September peak.

The Aroon Oscillator remains in positive territory at approximately 42.86. This, alongside $XRP‘s sideways movement around $1.50, suggests that an upward trend remains present, while momentum has diminished.

Analyst Ali Martinez pinpointed $1.54 as a crucial breakout level from a symmetrical triangle observed on the hourly chart. He indicated that a closing price above $1.54 would affirm his breakout prediction, which suggests a potential upward move of about 10% towards $1.70. The $1.70 target is based on technical analysis, not a guaranteed outcome.

EGRAG Crypto proposed a longer-term outlook, suggesting that $XRP is in a macro retest following an earlier breakout. He identified $1.64 as the next target, asserting that a weekly close above $1.92 would provide stronger support for his analysis. EGRAG also acknowledged the possibility of $XRP forming another lower low, a higher low, or continuing its sideways movement.

In the short run, the resistance level is set between $1.54-$1.56. A sustained rise through this area could refocus attention on $1.60 and the September high of approximately $1.66, while the immediate support remains around 1.46-1.48.

A drop below $1.46 could compromise the current consolidation pattern, redirecting focus to lower support levels. However, maintaining above this range while the RSI stays above 50 could keep $XRP within its existing consolidation band until clearer movements from buyers or sellers materialize.