Will XRP Surge Past $1.54 in Its Triangle Breakout?
Quick Overview
Analyst Ali Martinez identifies a symmetrical triangle formation in XRP, suggesting that an hourly close above $1.54 might spark a 10% price increase, though resistance at $1.70 remains a concern.
As of late September 2025, the XRP Scarcity Index reached its lowest level since January, resulting in an oversupply on Binance, complicating the likelihood of a breakout above $1.54.
Evernorth is set to debut on Nasdaq on October 8 with 473 million XRP valued at approximately $700 million, but since they already own these tokens, no new buying pressure is anticipated.
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Crypto expert Ali Martinez, known as Ali Charts, has noted that XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is forming a symmetrical triangle on its hourly chart. He proposes that an hourly close above the $1.54 level might lead to a price rise of about 10%. This analysis, shared on September 30, 2026, has sparked curiosity among XRP holders regarding the potential breakout direction of the triangle.
As of October 3, XRP is trading at around $1.48, marking a decline of roughly 4% in the last 24 hours and a similar drop over the preceding week, making it the weakest performer among the major cryptocurrencies. To reach the pivotal breakout point identified by Ali, XRP needs a 4% increase.
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XRP’s Symmetrical Triangle Indicates Potential Movement But Not The Direction
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A symmetrical triangle pattern occurs when a cryptocurrency records lower highs while simultaneously achieving higher lows. Traders establish lines that connect these peaks and troughs, resulting in a shape that narrows as time progresses.
This pattern signifies that the buying and selling forces are balanced, suggesting that a substantial price movement is imminent once one party gains dominance. However, it can swing either upwards or downwards. This is why Ali highlighted the significance of an hourly close—it refers to the price XRP maintains when a trading candle concludes its hour. A fleeting surge above $1.54 that retracts before the hour’s end will not be considered valid.
A 10% Surge From $1.54 Faces Resistance at $1.70 for XRP
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If XRP successfully breaks out and achieves a 10% rise from $1.54, the target would be around $1.69. This threshold is near previous resistance levels, where selling pressure previously stalled XRP—around $1.70 in August and $1.66 in September.
Therefore, even if XRP surpasses $1.54, it may face hurdles at the $1.70 mark, where those who purchased at highs might opt to liquidate and reclaim their investments.
More XRP is Available for Trading on Binance
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The growing supply of XRP on Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, adds to the downward pressure on its price. The XRP Scarcity Index from CryptoQuant dipped to -0.94 on September 30, marking its lowest level since January 2025.
This indicates a larger amount of XRP is available for trading than at any time in the past 20 months. Binance’s XRP holdings have decreased by around 20% since November 2024, which means the index decline signifies coins shifting into trading wallets rather than a general drop in total supply.
With an increased XRP supply, buyers will need to invest significantly to elevate the price above $1.54, even as XRP ETFs continue to receive inflows, despite ongoing price struggles.
Evernorth Set to Launch on Nasdaq with 473 Million XRP on October 8
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The upcoming listing also adds another dimension to the market scenario. Evernorth’s merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II is expected to finalize on October 7, following shareholder approval on September 30.
Evernorth intends to list its shares on Nasdaq under the symbol XRPN on October 8, beginning with approximately 473 million XRP valued at around $700 million.
However, since Evernorth already possesses these tokens, the listing won’t generate new demand on its debut. Additionally, the recent 4% decline in XRP prices suggests that traders might be adopting a wait-and-see approach until the merger is executed.
Which Direction Will the XRP Triangle Break?
At this stage, the XRP triangle appears to be favoring a potential downside breakout. With XRP trading about 4% below the pivotal $1.54 level highlighted by Ali and with a greater supply available on Binance, even a successful breakout might encounter resistance at the $1.70 threshold, which has previously hindered upward movement. To achieve a bullish outcome, XRP must show signs of reversal.
The crucial question remains: which way will this triangular pattern resolve? An hourly close above $1.54, combined with a smooth listing from Evernorth on October 8, could facilitate reaching Ali’s 10% target. Conversely, should XRP drop below $1.40, approximately 5% lower, the triangle may breach downwards, bringing the mid-August low near $1.00 back into consideration.
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