$XRP is facing significant pressure. With Bitcoin plunging below the $60,000 threshold, Ripple’s token also took a hit, dropping to approximately $1.08 after a brief dip below the $1.05 mark. The once reassuring $1 psychological support level is now glaringly apparent to traders.
What Led to $XRP‘s Decline to $1?
The downturn was not due to any specific issues surrounding $XRP itself but rather a consequence of market dynamics. $XRP has a notable history of mirroring Bitcoin’s downward trends. Throughout 2023, whenever Bitcoin has declined, $XRP has typically lost about double its value compared to Bitcoin, maintaining a ratio of approximately 1.8:1.
As soon as Bitcoin fell beneath the $60,000 mark, $XRP found it impossible to stabilize. The situation now appears worse than during the last significant downturn. Bitcoin’s breach of the $60,000 level for the first time since October 2024 — following a lengthy period of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a breaking of the Strategy’s historical sell prohibition — has resulted in a market scenario that is more severe than the crash triggered by the February Iran conflict. Buyers had previously supported the $1.11 level, which has now been breached.
The critical support level that buyers had consistently defended throughout the year has finally given way. Just a week ago, $XRP was holding steady around $1.28, a point protected during each dip since February. Now, with the failure of the $1.11 level and the $1 psychological threshold looming, the outlook has worsened.
$XRP Price Analysis: Should You Consider Buying $XRP?
The daily chart reflects a classic bearish trend. Since reaching the $1.50 resistance level in mid-May, $XRP has been contained within a consistent descending trendline, illustrating a series of lower highs and lower lows that has capped any recovery attempts.
Key technical insights are as follows:
- The downtrend remains intact. Every uptick since mid-May has faced selling pressure at the descending yellow trendline. The attempt to bounce back toward $1.30 in June failed at this same line before reversing.
- Support turned to resistance. Previously supportive levels of $1.15 and $1.20 have now become resistance points. Currently, $XRP trades below both.
- The $1.00 threshold is crucial. The support line rests directly at the psychological mark of $1.00, which the chart is now gravitating toward.
- RSI currently at 40.53. While momentum is bearish, the daily RSI indicates it is not overly oversold yet. An RSI around 40 implies there is still a possibility of a decline before sellers reach exhaustion — this serves as a caution for those anticipating a quick rebound.
The trend is evidently downward: until $XRP can reclaim the descending trendline and convert $1.15 back into support, the most likely path appears to be lower.
$XRP Price Forecast: What Lies Ahead for Ripple?
This is where it gets intriguing. The short-term outlook hinges mainly on two factors: Bitcoin’s performance and the outcome of the CLARITY Act.
- The bearish scenario (potential drop to $1 and below). With the break of $1.05, the chart’s structure has thinned. Experts identify $1.13 as a crucial weekly support for $XRP. A confirmed breach could shift focus to the $0.90–$1 target range, with Bitcoin’s weakness being the main drag. In the worst-case macro scenarios, if Bitcoin falls beneath $60,000 amid stalled ETF decisions and regulatory stagnation, some estimates suggest $XRP could settle between $0.21 and $0.75. Though this is a tail risk rather than the central case, it illustrates the potential damage from a prolonged downturn in $BTC.
- The bullish scenario (a sharp rebound). Here’s the interesting twist: while the price continues to decline, on-chain metrics reveal a contrasting narrative. Currently, $XRP whales possess a total of 45.83 billion tokens — accounting for 68.5% of the circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018. Furthermore, Binance’s whale outflow dominance reached 91.4%, a level observed before $XRP‘s ascension from $0.50 to over $3 in late 2024. Additionally, there’s a significant imbalance in market positions: short positions currently outnumber long positions by approximately 9 to 1. Thus, any unexpected positive event — such as a Senate floor vote passing — could initiate a short squeeze, pushing $XRP upward much faster than fundamentals would typically indicate.
- The CLARITY Act’s impact. This represents the most significant variable. If the bill passes and macroeconomic conditions stabilize, Standard Chartered predicts $XRP could rise to $2.80, with some bullish analysts suggesting targets could stretch toward $8. Conversely, if the CLARITY Act stalls and is pushed back to 2030 or later, prices might decline toward $0.53. This presents a potential downside of 30–40%, with possibilities of upside ranging from 2.5x to 7x, illustrating why $XRP holders are closely watching this legislative vote.
Key Levels to Monitor
For your $XRP price prediction watchlist, focus on the following levels:
- Immediate support: $1.05, with the crucial $1.00 psychological threshold following closely.
- If $1 breaks: the $0.90 area comes into play, with minimal technical support underneath.
- Upside reclaim: $XRP needs to breach the descending trendline and convert $1.15 into support to initiate any structural recovery. Beyond that, the next obstacles lie at $1.20 and $1.30.
$XRP Price Prediction: Will $XRP Dip Below $1?
$XRP‘s decline to $1 isn’t solely a challenge for Ripple; it’s intrinsically linked to Bitcoin’s performance, with $XRP typically falling almost twice as much on each $BTC drop. The daily chart shows a decidedly bearish trend, the descending trendline remains dominant, and the $1.00 mark signifies the last substantial support before a possible sharp downward shift.
However, the current setup resembles a coiled spring. With whales accumulating tokens, a high concentration of short positions, and the upcoming CLARITY Act vote acting as a pivotal event, $XRP may experience a sudden movement in either direction. For the moment, adhere to the downtrend — but be prepared for the potential impact of a single headline that could dramatically shift the momentum.