The cryptocurrency landscape is gearing up for the fourth quarter (Q4), with many anticipating the typical “Uptober” rally. While investors are hopeful for an immediate boost across major crypto assets, Ripple’s flagship token, $XRP, seems poised to take a different trajectory.
Insights from CryptoRank and current trading data on TradingView reveal a contradiction: even with the best Q3 close in four years, it may not be enough to prevent a prolonged stagnation in October for bullish investors.
What are the concerns surrounding $XRP‘s prospects in “Uptober”?
The market’s primary driver has been a robust Q3 conclusion. Following a significant uptick in capital entering U.S. spot ETFs, $XRP achieved a remarkable growth of +48.1%, marking its best Q3 outcome since 2022. The token’s price reached $1.54, completely offsetting its earlier losses this year and sending bullish signals on the weekly charts.
However, this swift ascent has led to local overbought conditions, which might trap bulls in a phase of consolidation. September’s rally was heavily influenced by a short squeeze, resulting in the forced liquidation of short positions.
The futures market is presently saturated with leverage. To maintain a healthy upward trend, a technical adjustment and a retest of support levels in the $1.30–$1.40 range are necessary. October presents a favorable opportunity for this reset.
Data from CryptoRank illustrates why bulls should temper their expectations for a continued rally: historically, October has been $XRP‘s weakest month. The average return during this time is -5.14%, with a median return of -2.97%.
In previous cycles, $XRP has consistently posted losses by the end of October, including in the years 2024 and 2025.
Conversely, the average return for the entire fourth quarter appears promising at +133.3%. This figure is somewhat misleading, as much of the liquidity influx is typically delayed, resulting in a negative median return of -8.00% for the quarter as a whole.
The primary phase of capital allocation often occurs in late autumn: November shows a median return of +80.2%, while December also provides a robust +63.1% gain.
Although $XRP is on the brink of a significant bullish cycle, technical elements suggest that an immediate rally at the start of the quarter is unlikely. October is expected to be characterized by an extended period of sideways movement or a mild correction.