Today, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has increased over 3%, reaching $1.14, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. This week alone, the cryptocurrency has risen nearly 8%, its strongest performance since the mid-June rebound.
XRP’s recent trajectory has brought it back to a critical point on its chart. Following a peak of $3.65 last July, each subsequent rally has been halted by a descending trendline connecting the highs. This week, the price is once again testing that vital line. Is this the moment XRP will finally break through? Let’s analyze the chart closely.
XRP Has Been Forming a Falling Wedge for a Year
Last July, XRP reached a high of $3.65 and has been in a downward trend ever since. Each recovery has resulted in lower highs and subsequent declines have created lower lows, forming two descending lines.
Since the highs are declining at a faster pace than the lows, the two lines are converging together. This pattern, known as a falling wedge, has seen XRP bounce off both lines every time it has reached them over the past year, making it a significant pattern to consider.
In a falling wedge, trading typically quiets down as the price constricts, and XRP’s activity has aligned with this. Most of the highest trading days have coincided with price drops, as holders rushed to sell. Recently, however, trading volumes have been light, suggesting that most selling might be behind us.
Currently, the XRP price is at the apex of that wedge and has overcome its first obstacle. The decline from May’s high created a smaller ceiling within the wedge—a steeper trendline that resisted every rebound for over a month. Then, on July 3, XRP successfully broke above that line, achieving its first higher high since late May.
The year-long line now represents a significant resistance point as it is the genuine ceiling of the wedge. Should XRP break through this point, the pattern indicates how much further the price could potentially climb.
Understanding the $1.50 XRP Price Target
When a wedge pattern breaks, technical analysts determine the height of the wedge—the distance between the two lines—and add this to the breakout point. Analyzing XRP’s wedge, the initial target emerges at $1.50, about 32% above the current price. If the rally is stronger, secondary targets range from $1.80 to $2.10, indicating potential extended zones.
This pattern also has a solid historical foundation. Research by Thomas Bulkowski, regarded as a reference point among analysts, indicates that falling wedges tend to breakout upward around 68% of the time, with an average rise of about 38% following a confirmed breakout. Therefore, a 30% increase in XRP to $1.50 would be a relatively standard outcome.
Nonetheless, a quarter of these upward breakouts tend to fail as prices breach the pattern and quickly revert back inside. Falling wedges also rank below average in reliability, as other bullish patterns tend to outperform.
Thus, the $1.50 target is based on precise measurements rather than speculation, but will only hold once a breakout is confirmed. Traders who rush in before that confirmation risk getting caught, especially since XRP has not yet fulfilled all criteria.
XRP Has Volume for a Breakout but Requires More Momentum
In late June, XRP trading volume was about $400 million daily. The recent upswing has seen that figure exceed $1.7 billion, representing a fourfold increase, successfully marking one of the necessary conditions for a breakout. However, the breakout requires strong buyer interest; rising prices without sufficient buying power often lead to false breakouts.
XRP’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a metric indicating whether a price has dropped excessively or surged too quickly—currently sits between 32 and 37, nearing oversold territory. This level indicates that XRP is still recovering from significant sell-offs rather than generating newfound strength. Hence, momentum—the second necessary element for a breakout—has not yet materialized.
However, early signs suggest that momentum could be on the horizon. In late June, despite XRP’s price making lower lows, the RSI noted higher lows, indicating that while the price dipped, the selling pressure was weakening. Traders refer to this phenomenon as “bullish divergence,” and it frequently occurs just before momentum shifts. While not everyone agrees, a clear signal would be the daily RSI rising above 50—the threshold that separates declining momentum from increasing, which has not yet been achieved.
Moreover, XRP closely follows Bitcoin’s movements. When Bitcoin sees increases, typically other cryptocurrencies follow suit. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating between $60,000 and $62,500. This stagnant movement isn’t detrimental to XRP, but it doesn’t provide much support either. If Bitcoin exceeds the $63,000 to $65,000 range, XRP’s chances of breaking out would significantly improve, while any further weakness in Bitcoin could drag XRP down with it.
Additionally, there’s a notable group just above the trendline XRP is seeking to breach—around 50 million XRP were acquired between the $1.18 and $1.22 range. These holders are currently at a loss, and many may sell once the price approaches their purchase point, meaning that any breakout must first contend with this selling pressure. This group has successfully halted XRP’s price at this juncture in both January and May, with the rejection in May initiating June’s downturn.
XRP Price Outlook Following the Trendline Interaction
Currently, XRP is priced at $1.14, slightly below the $1.18 to $1.20 range where the descending trendline and a large number of sellers converge. The upcoming daily closes will be crucial in deciding the direction of the wedge break.
Optimistic Prediction: XRP Could Surge to $1.50
For a rally to initiate, XRP needs to close daily above the $1.18 to $1.20 range, ideally with increased trading volume accompanying the move. A quick spike through this zone that reverts before the day concludes will not suffice; only a daily close carries weight.
The strongest indication would occur post-breakout. If XRP retraces to the zone it just surpassed and remains above it, that would validate the past resistance acting as new support, signifying the exit of sellers. From that point, $1.50 would become a target, and if Bitcoin simultaneously surpasses $65,000, the targets of $1.80 to $2.10 may also come into play.
Moderate Prediction: XRP Might Continue to Fluctuate Between $1.06 and $1.20
If sellers push back against XRP at the $1.18 to $1.20 zone once more, the next concern will be whether the $1.06 level holds. This level is where approximately 830 million XRP were purchased last, and it’s typical for buyers to re-enter around their previous entry point, establishing $1.06 as the nearest significant support.
Should this floor remain intact, XRP would likely oscillate between these two price points. However, the wedge is nearing completion, so this stasis isn’t expected to persist for too long. Historically, July has also been a favorable month for XRP, which might lend support to the potential for an upward break rather than a downward one.
Pessimistic Prediction: XRP Could Decline Toward $0.85
A daily close below $1.02 would signal the breakdown of the wedge floor, effectively concluding the pattern that took a year to form within a single day.
XRP has rarely traded below this level, suggesting limited buyer support to impede a decline. The price would likely first test $1.00, followed by the $0.85 to $0.90 support region. If this occurs, it would likely be driven by Bitcoin’s downturn impacting the overall market rather than intrinsic issues with XRP itself.
Is a 30% Rally Within Reach for XRP?
XRP is presented with one of its best opportunities for a breakout this year. The wedge is nearing its apex, trading volumes have risen significantly, and the coin is more oversold compared to the periods during the January and May attempts. Nonetheless, this same trendline has previously halted every rally for the past year; thus, the setup will only be validated if XRP closes above it.
For confirmation, three conditions must be met. XRP must close above the $1.18 to $1.20 range on the daily chart, the RSI should rise above 50, and Bitcoin needs to break past $65,000. Among these, the first condition is the most critical, and the 30% rally will need to be postponed until that close is achieved.
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