Current Ethereum Price: $2,450
- Ethereum saw a rise in exchange inflows after surpassing the average on-chain cost basis of $2,306.
- Recent profit-taking has been primarily driven by small investors, while larger holders continue to accumulate.
- The strong golden cross on ETH’s charts indicates a bullish trend.
After a notable surge of over +30% last week, Ethereum (ETH) has risen past its realized price, which is the average cost on-chain, sitting at $2,306. This increase has also led it to surpass the realized price across various wallet groups.
Typically, profit-taking tends to rise when prices break through the average on-chain cost basis after a prolonged bearish phase. Investors previously at a loss may choose to exit the market once they reach break-even or see a bit of profit.
As a result, ETH Exchange Netflows have turned positive in the last two days, with the 7-day moving average shifting into inflows territory. A positive netflow indicates that more coins are moving to exchanges than leaving, a phenomenon often associated with rising selling pressure.
The recent selling activity has been predominantly from retail accounts holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH, who reduced their holdings by 207,000 ETH last week.
Conversely, wallets containing 1,000 to 10,000 ETH maintained their balance at 13.623 million ETH, while larger holders with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH increased their balance by 182,000 ETH.
Even though retail wallets are the main sellers, the current movement could lead to a sustained rally if buyers manage to defend the realized price, similar to previous trends.
US Investor Sentiment Shifts Towards Positivity
In parallel, the sentiment among investors in the United States has shown signs of improvement over the past week. The Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge for investor mood in the region, is on the cusp of turning positive after months of negative readings.
Moreover, US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a continued positive trend from last week, recording $115.5 million in net inflows on Monday, as reported by SoSoValue data. This marks a consecutive six days of positive net inflows into these products.
Ethereum Price Outlook: Golden Cross Indicates Bullish Trend
In the last 24 hours, Ethereum witnessed liquidations amounting to $103.2 million, largely driven by $69 million in short liquidations, according to Coinglass.
ETH is experiencing robust short- and medium-term buying momentum following a clear golden cross signal—the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 200-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA is surpassing the 100-day EMA.
This stacked EMA configuration suggests a strengthened upward trend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the high 70s, and the Stochastic is in the high 80s, indicating strong but potentially overbought momentum, which might lead to consolidation rather than an uninterrupted rise.
On the downside, initial support can be found at the recent horizontal level around $2,431, with further demand expected near the 20-day EMA at $2,162 and the 200-day EMA at $2,144. Additional structural support levels around $2,172 and $1,961 could assist in a more significant decline.
On the upside, ETH encounters the next resistance area at $2,678, followed by a more substantial barrier at $2,865, where overbought conditions suggest a pause or correction may be necessary for buyers to gather the momentum needed for a sustained breakthrough.
(This technical analysis was created with the assistance of an AI tool. Learn more.)