Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure after slipping below a key rising channel that had been guiding its price since February, indicating there’s little to halt its descent.
The recent rejection at short-term resistance has intensified the downward momentum, pushing $BTC closer to a vital demand area around $60K. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics indicate that long-term investors are realizing losses, suggesting a shift in market behavior.
Bitcoin Price Overview: Daily Chart Insights
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has unmistakably fallen below the prominent ascending channel that it occupied for roughly four months. This decline occurred after $BTC was unable to reclaim the 200-day moving average in conjunction with the $80K level, resulting in a decisive downturn.
The 100-day moving average near the $72K mark has now established itself as a critical resistance area. The market briefly tested this level following the initial breakdown, but sellers quickly took charge, pushing prices down before even reaching this zone, as it failed to reclaim the $67K short-term supply area. This rejection indicates that bearish sentiment currently prevails.
As of now, the asset is trading around $63K, just above an essential support area at $60K. This pivotal demand zone represents a crucial level on the chart, having previously facilitated the recovery in February after a steep capitulation.
Should $BTC remain under the broken channel and below the moving averages, any rallies are likely to be seen as corrective movements. Furthermore, if the $60K support fails, the next significant downside target could be the large demand zone between $50K and $52K. Alternatively, regaining the $72K resistance would be necessary to reverse the current bearish outlook and potentially reopen the route to the $80K mark.
$BTC/USDT 4-Hour Analysis
The 4-hour chart sheds light on the recent decline. Following the drop from the $72K-$74K range, $BTC faced an intense sell-off that pushed it into the $60K support zone. The subsequent rebound created a brief rising channel, which is typically viewed as a bearish continuation pattern emerging after a significant downturn.
Recent price movement has breached the lower boundary of this channel, confirming the bearish pattern and heightening the chances of another test at the $60K-$61K support area. The unsuccessful attempt to break out at $67K underscores a lack of bullish momentum. Additionally, the RSI has rolled over from near-overbought levels and is now trending lower, nearing oversold territory, pointing to weakening short-term momentum.
If sellers continue to dominate, the immediate focus will remain on the $60K support zone. A decisive breakdown could unleash another wave of liquidations, accelerating moves toward higher time-frame liquidity areas beneath recent lows.
On the upside, $BTC would need to reclaim the $67K resistance level before any significant bullish scenario can be contemplated. Beyond that, the next substantial hurdle lies at the $72K zone, coinciding with the previous daily support and moving-average cluster.
Analysis of On-Chain Metrics
The Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) continues its sharp decline, now sitting below the critical 1.0 threshold. This metric indicates whether long-term traders are spending coins at a profit or a loss. Values above 1 indicate profitable spending, while readings at or below 1 suggest holders are either realizing minor profits or are reluctant to sell their coins.
The ongoing decrease in the 30-day EMA of the Long-Term Holder SOPR signals a significant drop in profit-taking activity among seasoned market players. Historically, such conditions tend to arise during extended corrections, as investors become increasingly hesitant to sell after significant price drops.
The metric has recently veered into capitulation territory, and its ongoing decline corroborates the deteriorating market conditions evident on the price charts. If the SOPR stays below 1, it would indicate that long-term holders are consistently encountering losses, a situation historically associated with late-stage corrections and key market turning points.
At this juncture, the combination of a bearish market structure, resistance rejection, and diminishing long-term holder profitability suggests that Bitcoin remains at risk for further downward pressure unless buyers reclaim the $72K region and reinforce control of the overall trend.
