If $XRP does not successfully surpass and maintain position above the mid-February resistance, we may see a further decline towards the $0.87 support level.
The recent trends in $XRP indicate a loss of momentum after it peaked at around $1.6 on March 17. Since then, the asset has been in a downtrend, breaching critical trendlines and losing its structural support. This decline is part of a larger ABC sub-wave configuration within a wider Wave 2 sequence.
Following the completion of sub-wave A at $1.43, analysts anticipate a drop to the $1.40 to $1.41 range for sub-wave B before a potential rise to $1.51 in sub-wave C. However, unless $XRP breaks and sustains levels above $1.65, the analysis suggests a significant Wave 3 drop towards $0.87. The last instance of $XRP testing the $1.65 mark was noted in mid-February.
Essential Highlights
- $XRP reached a peak of approximately $1.6 on March 16 before entering a downward trajectory, hitting a low of about $1.40 on March 24.
- The price has dipped below a significant consolidation trendline and is currently trading under two prominent trendlines.
- The ongoing recovery is characterized as a Wave 2 ABC retracement, with sub-wave A achieving a high of $1.43, and the next sub-wave B forecasted to drop to $1.40.
- Data suggests a potential recovery back to $1.51 for sub-wave C, coinciding with crucial Fibonacci resistance levels and the conclusion of Wave 2.
- If $XRP does complete Wave 2 in the $1.51 to $1.55 range and fails to climb above $1.65, a corrective Wave 3 could lead prices down to $0.87.
$XRP Remains Weak Despite Wave 2 Recovery
Following this height, $XRP experienced sustained declines, ultimately falling to a low of $1.36 by March 23, marking the conclusion of what can be regarded as corrective Wave 1. Currently, $XRP is navigating through the Wave 2 recovery, which consists of a smaller ABC substructure.
Sub-wave A saw prices reach a high of $1.43 earlier today, March 24. With the completion of this sub-wave, $XRP has now entered into sub-wave B. Casi anticipates that this forthcoming phase will drive prices down to the $1.40 to $1.41 region, which aligns with a significant support area and also approximately coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1.4136.
$XRP Remains Weak Below Critical Trendlines
Simultaneously, the chart indicates a expected decline into this support zone prior to any potential upward movement. Additionally, the RSI indicator is currently trending upwards with readings near 59 and demonstrating a clear upward trajectory.
$XRP 15m Chart | Casi Trades
This suggests that the recovery could still possess some strength. Nonetheless, Casi cautioned that should the RSI trendline be broken, the upward momentum would likely cease, leading to a more significant decline.
At present, the structural outlook appears weaker, as $XRP trades below two major trendlines. It has been unable to maintain above a previously strong consolidation trendline, which is now acting as resistance.
Moreover, the price remains beneath both the descending resistance line and the ascending support line. Casi pointed out that the failure to hold this trendline support is a significant indication that the market sentiment is still bearish.
Inability to Surpass $1.65 Keeps $0.87 in Sight
If $XRP can maintain levels above $1.40 during the B sub-wave, the chart suggests a final upward movement in sub-wave C. This concluding leg could bring the price into the range of $1.51 to $1.55, effectively completing the full Wave 2 correction. This target zone is significant as it aligns with multiple resistance levels, including the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.5141 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1.5551.
This same range previously served as resistance when $XRP struggled before a downward shift. Thus, the area between $1.51 and $1.55 is recognized as a strong barrier. Casi believes this is likely where the current bounce may conclude if the overall trend remains unchanged.
Casi clarified that any change in the bearish outlook would require $XRP to rise above $1.65 and maintain that position. This level is situated near a higher resistance zone and coincides with broader Fibonacci levels around $1.6352. Without a substantial move above this area, the market’s structure continues to exhibit bearish tendencies.
If $XRP fails to overcome this resistance while finishing the Wave 2 configuration, it is likely to experience a Wave 3 decline. The graph indicates this would manifest as a sharp downturn, potentially driving the price well beneath recent lows, with Casi’s primary downside target being $0.87, marking the next significant support level.