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According to Mike McGlone, Bitcoin is currently “transitioning from a prolonged plateau similar to the trends seen in 2018 and 2022.”
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He warned that “if it cannot demonstrate strength, it could trigger a chain reaction” affecting stocks and metals.
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Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity indicated that “a new bull market with a 4-year cycle might be starting” for Bitcoin, emphasizing that “narratives rarely mark the beginning of bull markets.”
On Sunday, Mike McGlone, a senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) “needs to validate its strength; otherwise, it could create repercussions for stocks and metals,” aligning with Jurrien Timmer’s viewpoint that the crypto market may be entering a new bullish phase.
McGlone elaborated that Bitcoin seems to be “transitioning from a prolonged plateau, much like what occurred in 2018 and 2022,” as indicated by a chart reflecting 50-week moving averages. He characterized Bitcoin as “a key indicator for risk assets since its establishment in 2009.”
He noted that the S&P 500 (SPX), the Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex, and copper have not mirrored Bitcoin’s decline seen previously in bear markets, which sets this period apart. “Is the original cryptocurrency providing a warning or merely creating a diversion?” he pondered.
McGlone also highlighted that October is “well-known for its market inflection points,” mentioning that expectations surrounding Federal Reserve rate hikes could indicate a concluding phase for rapidly escalating risk assets, wealth generation, and inflation.
Thus far, October has not been favorable for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency has dropped over 2% this month and is headed toward its first consecutive losing October in over a decade.
Bull Markets Typically Do Not Begin With A Narrative
Timmer, the global macro director at Fidelity, interpreted Bitcoin’s chart differently, suggesting that “a new 4-year cycle bull market may be forming,” based on observed power law patterns in Bitcoin. “Although there does not appear to be a narrative, bull markets seldom commence with one,” he noted, further positioning Bitcoin within what Fidelity has termed the “accumulation zone.”
Liquidity is Crucial
Both analysts emphasized that tighter conditions are expected in the near future. Timmer pointed out that both gold and Bitcoin “remain in holding patterns,” noting that gold is seeing steady inflows yet continues to be constrained by a slowdown in global liquidity growth, linked to tightening financial conditions.
In September, the Fed increased its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% and plans to reconvene between October 27 and 28.
Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price dipped by 0.2%. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment regarding BTC shifted to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish,’ with discussions surrounding it remaining at low levels lately.