Ripple’s Yearly Trend Line Shattered: Will $1.18 Mark the Turning Point?

XRP (XRP) has officially broken its long-standing descending trend line that it adhered to for nearly a year, giving the bulls a fresh opportunity. On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, the token was priced at $1.10, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.7% but still residing in the lowest price bracket seen since November 2024. This analysis focuses on this crucial structural shift and the resistance directly above.

Just a week ago, the monthly outlook painted a different picture. For the first time in three years, the month of June closed below the 50-month exponential moving average, leading to forecasts of further decline. However, the daily chart is now presenting a contrasting, albeit smaller, signal, emphasizing the importance of the divergence in these timeframes.

Stay updated with my real-time XRP market insights on X: @ChmielDk

The descending trend line I have tracked since July 19, 2025, has finally been breached. That was the date XRP traded above $3.50, nearing its cycle peak of $3.65, before a correction truncated roughly two-thirds of that price, as discussed in my analysis of the potential $2.50 and $0.53 scenarios. My chart highlights how this line rejected every subsequent rally: in October 2025, January, May, and again in June. The early July closing marked the first time the price surged through this level.

This break is significant; long-standing structures rarely fracture without an adjustment in the market. Breaking a line that has been intact for twelve months can disrupt existing buy and sell orders, leading to a necessary reassessment of risk. This is the theoretical implication, which is why I am changing my approach from regarding this solely as an additional leg in the bear market I explored in my earlier analysis of the 50-month EMA.

However, the horizontal outlook remains unchanged. The 50-day EMA, which has restricted every price bounce in 2026, remains just overhead. The price continues to be constrained at the lower boundary of the range established since late 2024. A broken diagonal trend line is only the beginning; it does not indicate a full reversal.

Why the $1.18 Level is Crucially Important

A more formidable barrier lies just a few cents ahead. XRP is currently pushing into the supply zone established by the lows of February 2026, spanning approximately $1.12 to $1.18. Having spent a decade analyzing XRP at Finance Magnates, documented on my analyst page, I’ve learned that a diagonal break holds value only as long as it meets the subsequent horizontal level.

This is the level that matters to me—not the trend line. A daily close above $1.18 would effectively eliminate the February resistance and open the door for the 50-day EMA and the $1.26 region to come into play. If this fails, the break remains a technicality in a market that continues to register lower lows.

The critical support line stands at $1.00. A daily close below this threshold would reopen the targets I described last week, with $0.67 and $0.47 following as the next Fibonacci stops below that. As I outlined in my earlier analysis, momentum generally accelerates once round-number supports are breached.

What the Bulls are Keeping an Eye On

The technical breach coincided with increased chatter from two prominent accounts regarding XRP.

On July 14, @MikybullCrypto informed 22,000 followers that “what is coming for XRP will be massive,” alluding to the chart patterns forming. My interpretation: such optimism needs to be validated by a daily close above $1.18 before it gains legitimacy, as previous setups have faltered within the current range.

$XRP

What is coming for XRP will be massive.

I love the pattern formation pic.twitter.com/T7ZIHRmtzJ

— MikybullCrypto (@MikybullCrypto) July 14, 2026

The second point of interest is regulatory developments. @Xfinancebull characterized the CLARITY Act as “the playbook institutions have been waiting for,” suggesting a shift towards a bullish sentiment for XRP and similar utility tokens.

BREAKING🚨PASS THE CLARITY ACT!

Trump just directed the Senate to take action. The House has approved it, and the Senate Banking Committee has advanced it.

For $XRP and other utility coins, this isn’t just noise. It’s the framework institutions have needed.

Stop stalling America’s crypto infrastructure!
I’m getting bullish! https://t.co/g2an6dg295 pic.twitter.com/rYJEuHFRUl

— X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) July 13, 2026

The timing is notable. The bill passed in the House back in July 2025 and moved through the Senate Banking Committee with a vote of 15-9 on May 14, yet it has remained untouched on the floor vote since June 1, as explained in the Finance Magnates CLARITY Act explainer.

The delay is not due to lack of support but logistical and ethical challenges. The Republicans require around seven Democratic votes to meet the 60-vote benchmark, and President Trump’s crypto income disclosure of $1.4 billion on July 1 has intensified Democrat demands for conflict-of-interest language. Additionally, banking groups are still contesting stablecoin reward regulations, as reported by Finance Magnates this week. The realistic window for passage lies within the sessions prior to the recess on August 7, with the likelihood of 2026 passage appearing close to a 50/50 chance. For XRP, the CLARITY Act remains a potential catalyst rather than a guaranteed victory.

XRP Price Outlook: What to Anticipate Next

My baseline viewpoint remains cautious until the chart proves otherwise. While breaking the trend line gives XRP a chance to approach $1.18, only a close above this mark would change the short-term bias. If it falls below $1.00, the framework described last week will take precedence once more.

Current institutional forecasts have not adjusted in line with market movements. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick maintains an $8 price target for XRP, but it relies heavily on the CLARITY Act being enacted and ETF inflows reaching $10 billion. In my assessment, given that the price remains below $1.18 and neither condition has been fulfilled, the $8 target is more realistic for 2027 than for 2026. Predictions nearing $2.25 to $2.50 demand that XRP reclaim the entire trading range of 2026 first, making the $1.18 break the crucial number for this week.

FAQs: XRP Price Insights

What prompted the current trend line break for XRP?

The descending line from July 19, 2025, had previously turned back XRP four times. However, early July marked the first daily close above this line. This break came after a month where XRP dropped below the 50-month EMA, leaving it oversold. A diagonal line that is held for an extended duration often springs back once sellers become fewer, as reflected in the current chart.

If XRP breaks above $1.18, how high could it go?

A daily close over $1.18 would eliminate the February supply zone, exposing the 50-day EMA and potentially the $1.26 level lost in June. Reclaiming $1.26 would signify the first real bullish momentum in months. Beyond this point, the resistance from $1.51 to $1.57 remains the tougher target for any sustained recovery.

What is the support level if XRP dips below $1.00?

The $1.00 level is considered the last defensive point. A daily close beneath this mark would reinstate the downside targets discussed last week, initiating with $0.67 and $0.47, both related to Fibonacci levels from the 2025 decline. Although these targets are predicated on broader market weakness, breaks of round numbers have a tendency to accelerate declines, positioning $1.00 as a pivotal level defining the bearish outlook.

Can the CLARITY Act alter the price prediction for XRP?

It has that potential, though the effects are not immediate. The bill aims to clarify XRP’s digital asset status under federal law, thus alleviating the regulatory concerns that have overshadowed its value since 2020. It has cleared preliminary hurdles but still awaits a full Senate vote, necessitating around seven Democratic votes. Until it passes, my analysis remains focused on chart movements rather than external headlines.

Is XRP still trapped in a long-term downtrend?

Indeed, it is. The monthly closure beneath the 50-month EMA and the loss of the $1.26 floor keep the overall long-term trend negative. The recent break of the trend line is a minor tactical signal within a broader bearish framework. The larger trend will only shift if XRP can reclaim the $1.26 benchmark on the monthly chart.