Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: The Clash Between Forecasts and Reality
Brief Overview
On June 30, Bitcoin experienced a low of $57,717, and then dramatically increased by 49% to reach $86,000, significantly surpassing Thielen’s bear prediction of $46,000.
In the third quarter, Bitcoin ETFs drew in $6.3 billion in inflows, alleviating selling pressure and contradicting Thielen’s assertion of a lack of genuine buyers.
If Bitcoin falls below its $57,717 low and ETF withdrawals recur before the year’s end, the bearish outlook could resurface.
Creating a portfolio is different from managing withdrawals from it, a crucial skill often neglected in education. The free resource, The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income, can assist with this. Read more here. (Sponsor)
Markus Thielen from 10x Research made two forecasts about a Bitcoin bottom during the summer of 2026, but Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) never fell to those anticipated figures. On June 24, he predicted a drop to $55,000 may occur between late August and October. Then, on July 4, he adjusted his projection to between $46,000 and $47,000, envisioning a 30% recovery to between $60,000 and $65,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin reached its 2026 low of $57,717 on June 30, occurring just six days after the first prediction and four days before the second. Since then, it has jumped nearly 49%, trading at approximately $86,000 as of October 7—considerably higher than the $55,000 target and 85% greater than the midpoint of Thielen’s lower estimate.
Igor Faun / Shutterstock.com
The current ascension of Bitcoin shows some constraints. Although it has risen around 8% in the past month, it still reflects a decline of about 30% compared to last year and is roughly 32% below its highest value of $126,080 from October 2025. What led to the error in Thielen’s bearish perspective?
Why 10x Research Predicted a Bitcoin Drop to $46,000
FellowNeko / Shutterstock.com
——
Introducing: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income
Successful investors ultimately face a pivotal issue: the accumulation phase is over, and now the focus shifts to how to effectively withdraw funds. Mismanaging this transition can jeopardize years of investment success.
This challenge is addressed by The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income. The guide outlines the real costs of retirement, beneficial income sources, and necessary withdrawal strategies to ensure longevity of funds. This resource is complimentary today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here ›
——
Thielen’s predictions in June were influenced by a robust US dollar and a rigid Federal Reserve stance, which was expected to maintain high-interest rates to address inflation. A strengthening dollar increases Bitcoin’s cost for those using other currencies, while elevated interest rates make cash and bonds more appealing to investors. During that period, traders were assessing whether the Fed’s next move under Chair Kevin Warsh would be another rate increase.
In July, Thielen furthered his analysis using Elliott Wave theory, which views price movements as repetitive wave patterns. He projected a declining wave to approximately $63,000 in February, followed by a recovery to around $82,000 to $83,000, culminating in a final wave (Wave C) predicting prices to plummet to between $46,000 and $47,000.
Evidence from the market lent weight to his earlier assertions. From mid-May to July, US spot Bitcoin ETFs faced around $7 billion in net outflows, with Strategy, the largest buyer this year at approximately $13 billion, tempering its purchases. Thielen observed in July that “there’s no real buyer in the market right now.”
How Bitcoin ETF Buyers Countered the Bearish Forecast
Phongphan / Shutterstock.com
Yet, Thielen’s assertion of a buyer deficit was soon challenged as data emerged. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, allowing everyday investors to engage with Bitcoin via standard brokerage accounts, brought in about $6.3 billion in the third quarter, with $2.3 billion generated in just four days at the end of September.
This surge in funds mirrored Bitcoin’s ascent. While Thielen expected the lowest point between late August and October, Bitcoin rose from its June low in that timeframe.
The influx of ETF investment accounts for why his July wave forecast fell short. Wave C needed significant selling pressure, but ETF investors were buying the coins that were being sold. By late September, these funds owned approximately 6.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Thielen’s Dollar and Fed Predictions Remain to be Evaluated
f11photo/ via Getty Images
From a macroeconomic perspective, Thielen’s insights regarding the dollar and the Federal Reserve still require scrutiny. The rise in Bitcoin’s price alone does not definitively validate his analysis of these influences. The Fed’s rate decisions during its September meeting occurred on September 16, with a follow-up meeting on October 27 and 28. These forthcoming decisions will clarify whether rates align with Thielen’s expectations.
Moreover, Thielen’s end-of-year forecast has also changed. He previously anticipated Bitcoin would rebound between $60,000 and $65,000 from $46,000. Now, with Bitcoin nearing $86,000, achieving that target would necessitate a decline of roughly 24% to 30% by December 31—a stark contrast from his original expectation.
What Errors Were Made in Predicting Bitcoin’s Bottom?
The primary flaw in the bearish forecast was the misinterpretation of demand. Thielen’s predictions were rooted in the belief that buyers had exited the market, yet ETF investors contributed an impressive $6.3 billion to Bitcoin funds during the same quarter he predicted the lowest prices. Individuals who sold their Bitcoin near $59,000 at the time of his initial predictions have missed out on approximately 45% in value increase.
Still, the bear scenario could reemerge. Should Bitcoin dip below its 2026 low of $57,717 before December 31, and if ETF outflows increase in the fourth quarter, Thielen’s lower price expectations could come back to fruition. As long as Bitcoin remains above this crucial threshold and demand from fund investors stays robust, the claim that there are “no real buyers” will continue to be proven incorrect.
Now Available: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income
(Sponsor) People often dedicate their working years to accumulating wealth only to find that the true challenge comes with withdrawing that money responsibly. Making errors during this transition can undermine decades of smart investing.
This transition is frequently overlooked in personal finance discussions, leaving many cautious investors unprepared. The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income offers valuable insights. This complimentary guide from Fisher Investments details potential retirement costs, income sources worth pursuing, and safe withdrawal techniques. Discover more here. Learn More Here ›
