Bitcoin Cash has achieved its most significant daily increase in six weeks, outperforming Bitcoin’s gains for the month. However, the factors driving this spike are double-edged, potentially leading to an abrupt turnaround.
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Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) has experienced an 18.3% increase in value over the past month, notably surpassing the performance of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), which recorded a rise of just 6.5%. This disparity prompts an intriguing question for investors: can BCH sustain its momentum against Bitcoin? As of now, Bitcoin Cash is trading around $275.
A significant trading session on September 22, 2026, saw BCH soar from $267 to $345, marking a remarkable 29% surge, which stands as its largest daily gain in the last month and a half.
Despite this rise, BCH has experienced a 13.2% decline in the last fortnight. It remains 53.9% lower than its price at the beginning of the year, trading approximately 92.7% below its all-time high set in 2017. The question arises: what fueled BCH’s rise, and is it capable of maintaining its upper hand over Bitcoin?
CME’s Futures Announcement Propelled BCH
The latest surge in Bitcoin Cash coincided with an announcement from CME Group (NASDAQ: CME | CME Price Prediction) on September 22, revealing plans to introduce Bitcoin Cash futures by October 19, contingent on regulatory approval. A futures contract is essentially an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a future date, and CME’s contracts will include both a standard size of 250 BCH and a micro size of 25 BCH.
Following this announcement, BCH witnessed a notable trading session, peaking at $366 on September 23—the highest price seen in the last six weeks—before closing at $337. Analysis conducted during the previous month highlighted this CME announcement as the primary trigger aligning with price increases.
How Do Futures Enhance BCH’s Value Before Launch?
Futures traded on a regulated U.S. exchange enable institutional investors, who might not hold cryptocurrencies directly (like pension funds), to gain price exposure. Anticipation surrounding such contracts often prompts traders to purchase BCH ahead of anticipated demand, aiming to profit when new investors enter the market—a strategy commonly known as buying the rumor.
Nonetheless, the demand on the launch day may not always meet expectations. For instance, when CME introduced Ether futures in February 2021, only 388 contracts were traded on the first day. Additionally, futures allow short sellers—who profit from falling asset prices—a regulated means to enter positions without needing to physically borrow the coins.
For funds already holding BCH, these futures contracts can act as a hedge, safeguarding against potential declines in price. Arbitrage desks might also benefit from discrepancies in pricing by purchasing spot BCH and selling futures as part of their strategy. Giovanni Vicioso, the former global head of cryptocurrency products at CME, characterized these futures as tools designed to assist investors in navigating the evolving risks associated with digital assets.
BCH Has Retraced Much of Its Gains
Despite the initial enthusiasm, BCH has been on a downward trajectory after reaching its peak in September. It closed at $306 on September 30, dipped to $271 by October 8, and slightly recovered to $278 on October 15. A support level appears to be forming around $256, roughly 6.8% beneath the current trading price, while resistance has emerged between $280 and $284, with higher hurdles around $347 to $366, where the September surge faced selling pressure.
In recent weeks, trading volumes have waned. BCH experienced its greatest activity on September 22 and 23, but daily volumes have steadily declined into October as prices dropped. A rise in price accompanied by falling volume often indicates a lack of new buying interest.
Bitcoin Enjoyed a Stable Month, Thanks to Existing Futures Trading
Conversely, Bitcoin’s price saw a steady increase from approximately $76,349 on September 17 to nearly $81,545 by October 17, still trailing its 2025 peak of $126,080. Since CME has previously launched futures for Bitcoin, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), along with a new crypto index, the introduction of a new futures product did not spur significant additional buying activity.
Nevertheless, in the short term, BCH and Bitcoin continue to move in sync. Both saw declines in late October 17, with BCH dropping to $270 and Bitcoin decreasing to $80,700 before partially recovering. This drop suggests that BCH’s temporary independence from Bitcoin may not last, akin to previous instances when altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin before ultimately realigning with its trends.
Will Bitcoin Cash Keep Its Edge Following CME Futures Launch?
Looking forward, it appears unlikely that BCH will consistently surpass Bitcoin in performance. The recent rise of BCH is heavily linked to the anticipated CME futures introduction, which could face delays due to regulatory assessments. If such delays occur, BCH might lose the momentum that has recently supported its gains. Even if the launch proceeds without setbacks, it may mainly attract hedgers and short sellers, rather than a wave of new investors.
Nonetheless, if new capital begins to flow due to the futures, BCH could expand its lead. The initial test of this scenario will take place the week following the expected futures launch.
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